A Profitable Trend to Know for Capitals-Lightning Game 6

Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals is tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena. The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 3-2 series advantage and will try to advance to the Stanley Cup Final by eliminating the Washington Capitals.

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The Caps are not only trying to extend their season but also trying to avoid making the wrong kind of history. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead before losing the past three games. Since 1974-75, only two teams out of 41 have won the first two games of a conference final or league semifinal and failed to advance to the next round per ESPN.

Can the Capitals force a Game 7? Or is there value on the Lightning as road underdogs. Since 2006, playoff favorites on a losing streak late in a series (Game 5-7) such as Washington have gone 44-18 (71%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would be up $1,159 waging on these teams (18.7% ROI).

I like the Caps tonight, but it’s not my favorite bet on the board. The total for Game 6 opened at six. Most tickets are currently on the under. Is that the right play? Using the Bet Labs software, I answer that question with a betting system that has an over/under win rate of 75%.

There are 1,111 playoff hockey games in our database. Only 119 (10.7%) have closed with a total of six or more goals. The high total hasn't scared off over bettors. In 86 (72.2%) of those games, 50% or more of tickets were on the over.

Unfortunately for the public, it has been profitable to bet the under in high-total games. Since 2006, the under is 62-41-16 (60.2%) in playoff games with a total of six or higher. It is even more profitable to bet the under late in a series:

Since 2006, the under in a high-total playoff game (six or more goals) is 39-13-5 (75%) in Games 4-7. As a series progresses, fatigue and defensive adjustments should lead to lower-scoring games. Plus, the higher the total, the easier it is for the under to hit.

As I mentioned earlier, I like the Capitals to win, but my favorite bet in Game 6 is the under. At the time of publication, 60% of tickets and 67% of dollars are on the under 6 (-125). Looks like I’m not the only gambler thinking we will see a low-scoring affair.