NHL Props: Pastrnak Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?

NHL Props: Pastrnak Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal? article feature image

Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA Today Sports

Friday’s NHL slate features only five games, but that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are four overs I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 8:00, and 8:30 p.m. ET.

Devils G Keith Kinkaid over 30.5 total saves

7:00 p.m. ET

Over the past month, Pittsburgh has caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 31 or more saves in 10 of 13 games, and New Jersey has allowed the second-most Corsi on the slate over that same time period. Kinkaid’s 34.53 Save Prediction in our Models leads the slate, and given the Penguins willingness to shoot this line looks a tad low. Pittsburgh also leads the slate in Expected Goals For, but indicating that Kinkaid is likely to get a lot of opportunities to block shots.

Canadiens G Antti Niemi over 28.5 total saves

7:00 p.m. ET

Attacking goaltenders with the over in the early set of games could be the play, as this line looks equally egregious with Niemi facing Buffalo. The Canadiens have allowed more shot attempts over the past month than any team on today’s slate, and the Sabres own the fourth-highest Expected Corsi For and are at home. Our Save Prediction metric currently projects Niemi for 34.2 saves tonight, second most on the slate.

Blues C Brayden Schenn over 2.5 shots on goal

8:00 p.m. ET

I discussed St. Louis today on Inside the Lab, and the Canucks provide a favorable matchup for shots on goal props (82nd percentile in shot attempts allowed). Schenn has averaged 2.75 shots per game over the past month, and he has seen top-30 percentile shots-allowed matchups in only three of 12 games over that span. With the line set at just 2.5 shots, this looks like a prime opportunity to fire at a 91st percentile shooter in a strong matchup.

Bruins W David Pastrnak over 2.5 shots on goal

8:30 p.m. ET

Pastrnak has averaged 3.36 shots over the past month (97th percentile), yet somehow his prop is set at 2.5 today in a matchup against Dallas that is no worse than neutral. To give some perspective: Teammate David Krejci’s shots on goal prop is set at 1.5, and he currently averages just 1.79 shots per game (65th percentile). It seems to me that these players should be much further apart. Of the two, Pastrnak seems to be the one who provides more value in this game.

Pictured above: David Pastrnak