Stanley Cup: The Golden Knights Open As Favorites Over the Capitals


Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

May 24, 2018, 11:26 PM EDT

The Stanley Cup Final is set. The Vegas Golden Knights will take on the Washington Capitals in a best-of-7 series for the right to lift Lord Stanley.

The series will begin at T-Mobile Arena on Monday, May 28 at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. Vegas has home-ice advantage for the series. If the series reaches Game 7, the winner-take-all contest will take place on June 13 in Sin City.

Series Odds

Believe it or not, Vegas is a decent sized favorite to win the series over Washington. The Golden Knights opened at -160 (~61.5% implied probability) with the Capitals coming back at +140 (~41.7%). The Knights are -150 to win Game 1 with the Caps priced at +135. The over/under for the series opener is 5.5 goals (all odds courtesy of the Westgate).

Series Schedule

Monday, May 28, 8pm: Capitals @ Golden Knights, NBC

Wednesday, May 30, 8pm: Capitals @ Golden Knights, NBCSN

Saturday, June 2, 8pm: Golden Knights @ Capitals, NBCSN

Monday, June 4, 8pm: Golden Knights @ Capitals, NBC

*Thursday, June 7, 8pm: Capitals @ Golden Knights, NBC

*Sunday, June 10, 8pm: Golden Knights @ Capitals, NBC

*Wednesday, June 13, 8pm: Capitals @ Golden Knights, NBC

Opening Night Odds

On Opening Night, Washington was tied with Tampa Bay as the third-favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +1125, giving them an implied probability of ~8.2%. Vegas, on the other hand, was listed at +20000, meaning the bookies gave them a 0.50% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley.

All-Star Break

Vegas was priced at +800 at the All-Star Break, making them  the second-favorite (behind Tampa Bay). Washington was the sixth-favorite, listed at +1475.

Playoff Odds

Heading into the playoffs, the Capitals had the seventh-lowest odds at +1225. Washington had a very hard path to the Cup Final, needing to beat Columbus, Pittsburgh and then Tampa, so it made sense that the serial underachievers were hung as high as they were. Vegas came into the show at +875, behind only Nashville, Tampa and Boston.

The Path

Vegas has yet to play a Game 7 in the postseason. The Knights swept Los Angeles, 4-0, in Round 1, defeated San Jose, 4-2, in Round 2 and then upset Winnipeg, 4-1, in the Western Conference Final. That puts them at 12-3 in the playoffs — ridiculous.

Washington’s run to the Final has been a roller coaster. The Caps had to claw back from 0-2 down (losing both games at home) against the Blue Jackets in Round 1 before coming back from 2-1 down to beat Pittsburgh in six games. After taking the first two games in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Caps dropped three straight to Tampa, putting their backs against the wall, again. Barry Trotz’s men answered the call, pitching back-to-back shutouts to close out the series in seven games.

Archived odds provided by Sports Insights and Sports Odds History.

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