The NHL Daily: The Stars are out in Tampa Bay
Welcome to the NHL Daily. Go inside the NHL’s card for Thursday, November 16, as we explore betting angles and try to find value in this volatile, cruel, good-for-nothing sport.
It’s a jammed NHL schedule tonight, so let’s get right to the nuts and bolts.
Last night’s action: A couple of nights after blowing a 4-1 lead to the Devils, the Blackhawks looked like they were in danger of repeating the feat on Wednesday night against the Rangers. Fortunately, Artem Anisimov finished off a third-period hat-trick, and the ‘Hawks skated away with a win. Anaheim polished off Boston 4-2 to hand us a second win on the evening.
The Devils’ 103.6 PDO is the highest in the league, and while they will have a tough time hanging at the 3.5 goals per game they are currently averaging, they do have some very skilled forwards and one of the league’s most in-form goaltenders to start the year. Tonight, the Devils travel to Toronto to take on the Leafs, who are one of three teams averaging more goals per game than New Jersey. The Devils are a good price at this number, especially with Toronto missing Auston Matthews.
The Arizona Coyotes are off to a historic start to the season — and not in a good way. Their opponents tonight, the Montreal Canadiens, seemed to have steadied themselves for the time being after a rough start of their own. The Coyotes are not a good team, but they aren’t 2-15-3 bad. They will start picking up wins at some point, and tonight they have the edge in goal. Getting a team at +175 against Charlie Lindgren — however hot he may be — is worth a look.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are an absolute machine right now and it’s no fun to bet against them, but that’s what the numbers suggest when they host Dallas on Thursday night. The Bolts are the better of the two teams but the Stars are a solid bunch, so this number is in range. If Dallas stays out of the penalty box and Tampa doesn’t shoot the lights out, there’s a chance here.
Coming into the year, it was expected that Winnipeg’s offense would be one of the league’s best. They haven’t exactly clicked yet, but they’ve survived thanks to their goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia has remained competitive in the bonkers Metropolitan Division because of great production from their top forwards. Neither of these teams operates at above 50 percent Corsi, and neither has generated a lot of scoring chances at 5-on-5, but Winnipeg’s depth is the difference, and at -121 they’re one to add to the card.
The Bruins bring their banged up show to the Staples Center on Thursday night to take on the Kings. It is the B’s second game in a row, they will likely play their backup goaltender, and they will be without Brad Marchand. It’s an ugly one, and a game you’ll lose more than you win, but Boston provides the value in Hollywood.
Update, 8:30 p.m ET
Adding the Canucks to the card at -146. With the Golden Knights goaltending situation being what it is, this is now in range.
Picks: New Jersey +140, Arizona +175, Dallas +160, Winnipeg -121, Boston +154, Vancouver -146
Season to date: 44-55, -5.61u