The NHL Daily: Back-to-backs, backup goalies and bad teams
Welcome to the NHL Daily. Go inside the NHL’s card for Saturday, November 11, as we explore betting angles and try to find value in this volatile, cruel, good-for-nothing sport.
It’s induction weekend at the Hockey Hall of Fame, and it feels damn good to see Paul Kariya back in the fold. Kariya famously found his way out of the limelight after he retired early because of concussions. Kariya, who will be inducted alongside longtime teammate Teemu Selanne, was one of the bright spots for the league during the “Dead Puck Era.” Hearing Kariya recount his everyday battles in his retirement is both harrowing and inspiring, and the interview he did with Michael Farber of TSN will remind you of why you love hockey in the first place.
Last night’s action: Hockey overtime is cruel and unusual. In the afternoon game, Colorado fell to Ottawa 4-3 in the extra session. And later on in the night, Boston blew a lead with a minute left in Toronto and completed the capitulation by falling in overtime. Going back to Monday, we’re 0-7 in our last seven contests that have gone past the third period. Spilled milk, so it goes. No shows from the Islanders and Jets on the road completed the ugly night. Nothing left to do than to get right back on the horse.
Thanks to Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatl and Cam Talbot, the Oilers have won two games in a row, both in overtime, despite being outplayed. Once again, the Oilers are getting too much love on the road.
After losing game one of the NHL’s Global Series in overtime, the Avalanche are an even better price for Saturday’s game two. Both of these teams are in the bottom five of Corsi For, and with both clubs going with their backup goalies, this one is close to a coin flip with a slight edge on the Senators’ side. With that being the case, getting the Avs at +133 is a good play.
Buffalo is a bad team, most likely playing their backup goaltender and on a back-to-back. The Canadiens are a much better team and are getting Jonathan Drouin and Shea Weber back. Not exactly a convincing argument, but by my number the Sabres are getting over 10 cents of value against the Canadiens, who are still rolling with Charlie Lindgren in goal. If you can handle the fact that you’ll lose more often than you win, take the value with the Sabres.
Minnesota will be playing their third game in four nights when they take on the Flyers in Philadelphia on Saturday. Philadelphia is terribly inconsistent because they rely solely on their top six to get them on the board. If one of their top two lines has an off night, it will be tough for Philly to get anything going offensively. This one is about 52/48 in favor of the home team, so there is something in the Wild number.
The New York Islanders put up a solid dud last night in Dallas and now travel to St. Louis for a tilt with the Western Conference pace setters. The Blues are right to be favored here (and as always, for the sake of transparency the author of this column is an Islanders’ fan), but the number is flattering for St. Louis. It’s another one where you hope a bounce or two goes our way and the Isles, who have solid underlying metrics, come through.
After losing in Washington last night, the Penguins travel to Nashville for a Stanley Cup rematch. The Pens will likely be playing backup goaltender Tristan Jarry and are right to be the underdogs, but the edge here is with the visitors.
Picks: Rangers -114, Avalanche +133, Sabres +175, Wild +119, Islanders +141, Penguins +126
Season to date: 38-50, -7.21