Sergei Belski-USA Today Sports
Friday features another two-game playoff slate, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00 and 10:00 p.m. ET. You Stay Classy, San Diego: The Padres landed Manny Machado today, which improved all of their futures. Are they worth a longshot to win the World Series, though?
Lightning W Nikita Kucherov under 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
7:00 p.m. ET
Over the past year, Kucherov has notably averaged 3.49 shots per game (97th percentile), but over the past month his shot total has plummeted to 2.0 per game (70th). Kucherov has also registered four or more shots in only six of his past 15 games, and Boston leads the slate with the lowest Corsi Allowed (39.67) over the past month (14th percentile in shot attempts allowed). This is a tough spot for Kucherov to progress toward his long-term mean, especially given that the Lightning own the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For.
Bruins G Tuukka Rask under 29.0 total saves (-115)
7:00 p.m. ET
Over the past month, Bruins goaltenders have averaged 25.53 saves per game, and the team has allowed an astounding 39.67 shot attempts per game (30.42 shots on goal). With that kind of lock-down defense in front of him, Rask unsurprisingly has a slate-low 25.73 Save Prediction in our Models. Tampa Bay has the slate’s second-lowest Expected Goals For, indicating that Rask could stop a higher percentage of his already minuscule workload, but this line seems a tad high for a Boston team that has allowed just 30.1 shots per game in the playoffs.
Golden Knights C William Karlsson over 3.0 shots on goal (-110)
10:00 p.m. ET
Wild Bill’s shots are down from the regular season, when he averaged 2.24 per game, but he’s quietly registered three or more in four of his last five playoff games. The matchup remains fantastic for Vegas shooters, as the Sharks rank in the 99th percentile in shot attempts allowed over the past month. Karlsson offers value in comparison to some of his teammates, such as James Neal (O/U 3.5 shots, -120 odds, 2.85 shots per game over the past year). Given the favorable matchup and recent history, Karlsson looks like a good bet. Vegas owns the slate’s second-highest Expected Corsi For.
Pictured above: William Karlsson