Top NHL Props for Thursday: Arvidsson Over/Under 3.0 Total Shots on Goal?

Top NHL Props for Thursday: Arvidsson Over/Under 3.0 Total Shots on Goal? article feature image

Thursday features one game — the only Game 7 in Round 2 — but there still should be plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are two props I’m eyeing for Jets-Predators, starting at 8 p.m. ET.

 

Predators G Pekka Rinne over 30.5 total saves (-115)


8 p.m. ET

Per our Game 7 Preview, Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been slightly better than Rinne in the postseason, but the latter’s 35.42 Save Prediction in our Models has the Predators netminder with a more favorable prop. In the playoffs, Winnipeg has caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 31.27 saves per game, and over the entire season, Nashville has allowed the 11th-most shots. Winnipeg owns a high 48.6 Expected Corsi For but has an Expected Goals For of just three goals, indicating that Rinne could stop a high percentage of his already voluminous workload.

Predators W Viktor Arvidsson over 3.0 shots on goal (-130)

8 p.m. ET

One way to take advantage of inefficient player props is to target recent shooting spikes. Arvidsson has averaged 3.66 shots in the series (98th percentile) vs. 3.17 over the past year (96th). The Jets have gone the other way defensively in the short term: After allowing 31.9 shots per game in the regular season, they have averaged 36.17 shots against per game in this series. The Predators lead the playoffs in shots per game (35.8), and their entire system revolves around accumulating shot attempts. Arvidsson is a big part of that, registering three or more shots in five of six games in this series. Considering the favorable matchup and recent history, he offers value.

Pictured above: Viktor Arvidsson

Photo credit: Terrence Lee-USA TODAY Sports