Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 1 NHL Player Props I’m Betting

Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 1 NHL Player Props I’m Betting article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brent Burns

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Saturday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 1 of the Blues-Sharks series.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 1 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series.

I should mention that early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had some prop-betting success.

Perhaps it’s easier to project ice time and usage in the playoffs. Or maybe I’ve just had a good sense of the matchups we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks.

Regardless, I like some of the player props for tonight’s game. For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

732-556-42, +102.26 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 368-277-7, +44.55 Units
  • NHL: 72-85-9, -7.04 Units
  • MLB: 45-52-12, -12.01 Units
  • Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
  • NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-32-0, +30.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units

St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks Betting Odds

  • Blues: +110
  • Sharks: -130
  • Over: 5.5 (+110)
  • Under: 5.5 (-130)
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

St. Louis Blues

Blues RW Vladimir Tarasenko: Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

Tarasenko leads the Blues with 3.62 shots on goal per game this year (including the playoffs). We should expect him to get his shots.

But he doesn’t have a good matchup. In the regular season, the Sharks held opponents to the second-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.2 in the postseason, the Sharks are still a team that limits shots with their defense.

The samples are small, but Tarasenko averaged three shots per game against the Sharks in the regular season. And in the playoffs he’s had fewer than 3.5 shots in seven of 13 games (53.9%).

Given the matchup, I have him projected for 3.47 shots and would bet the under to +100.

Blues C Brayden Schenn: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140)

During the regular season, Schenn averaged 2.21 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, he’s had 2.0 shots per game. With his matchup, I don’t know why that number would go up now.

I have Schenn projected for 2.07 and would bet this down to -150.

Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Schwartz has been on fire with eight goals in the playoffs, and his shot volume has slightly increased (2.69 shots per game in the postseason vs. 2.65 in the regular season).

But he has a disadvantageous matchup and has had fewer than 2.5 shots on goal in eight of 13 playoffs games (61.5%).

I wouldn’t bet the under any lower than +100, but I do have him projected for 2.34 shots.

Blues RW David Perron: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

In his 70 games this season (including playoffs), Perron has just 2.1 shots on goal per game, so he’s not a high-usage guy.

In the regular season, he had fewer than 2.5 shots in 39 of 57 games (68.4%).

I have Perron projected for 2.07 shots and would bet this down to -150.

Blues LW Pat Maroon: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (-150)

Maroon isn’t much of a shooter. In the regular season, he averaged 1.59 shots per game. In the postseason, he’s managed 1.69.

In his 13 playoffs games this year, he’s had more than two shots just thrice.

I have him projected for 1.36 shots and would bet the under to -165.

Blues C Oskar Sundqvist: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (+100)

This one could easily end in a push: Sundqvist has averaged exactly two shots on goal per game in the playoffs.

But in the regular season, he averaged just 1.53 shots per game, and in the postseason, he’s had more than two shots in only three games.

I have him projected for 1.66 shots and would bet the under to -140.

San Jose Sharks

Sharks C Logan Couture: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-105)

Like the Sharks, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has bumped up slightly to 29.2, but the Blues are still one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.

In the playoffs, Couture has been aggressive with 3.29 shots per game — an increase from 2.52 in the regular season, and I’m expecting some regression toward the mean.

This could easily end in a push, but I have Couture projected for 2.58 shots and would bet the under to -135.

Sharks LW Timo Meier: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115)

As good as the Blues are at limiting opponent shots, some guys just shoot no matter what. That’s Timo.

In the regular season, he averaged 3.21 shots per game. In the playoffs, he’s had three per game. This guy was born to shoot.

I have him projected for 2.92 shots and would bet the over to -150.

Sharks LW Evander Kane: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155)

Kane is like Timo — but even more extreme. He’s going to shoot no matter what. In his 89 games this year (including playoffs), Kane has averaged 3.51 shots per game.

This year, he’s had more than 2.5 shots in nine of 14 playoff games (64.3%).

I have him projected for 3.35 shots and would bet the over to -175.

Sharks C Tomas Hertl: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-110)

Hertl has fired a team-high 3.86 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he averaged a more modest 2.29 shots per game.

This bet could easily end in a push, but I expect that Hertl will regress. I have him projected for 2.61 shots and would bet the under to -140.

Sharks C Joe Thornton: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

Thornton is like Hertl: His volume has picked up in the playoffs (1.69 shots per game), but he seems likely to regress toward his regular-season average (1.23).

With the tough matchup, I have Thornton projected for just 1.19 shots and would bet the under to -140.

Sharks D Brent Burns: Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+115)

Burns has been one of the NHL’s most offensively dominant defensemen for years. I’m not even joking when I say this: My No. 1 prop-betting mistake for 2019 has been investing regularly in the Burns under.

This year, if I had simply bet on Burns all of the times I actually bet against him, I would have a positive NHL prop record. Not once — not once — this entire season have I bet the Burns over.

But I’m doing it now.

And I’ll probably lose.

But at plus money, I can’t pass up this opportunity.

He has a tough matchup, and in the playoffs he’s had just 2.71 shots per game, but in the regular season he averaged a whopping 3.66 shots, and I expect progression: Burns is just too dominant of a player not to take his shots.

I have him projected for 3.58 shots and would bet the over to +100.

And when the under hits, I will fully hate myself.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

How would you rate this article?