Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 2 NHL Player Props I’m Betting
Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Timo Meier
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Monday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 2 of the Blues-Sharks series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 2 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series. NOTE: I might update this piece as more lines are released.
I should mention that early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had prop-betting success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m a respectable 22-12-2 (+8.15).
Perhaps it’s easier to project ice time and usage in the playoffs. Or maybe I’ve just had a good sense of the matchups we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks.
Regardless, I like some of the player props for tonight’s game. For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
754-568-42, +110.26 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 374-280-7, +46.93 Units
- NHL: 88-92-9, +0.58 Units
- MLB: 45-52-12, -12.01 Units
- Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks Betting Odds
- Blues: +115
- Sharks: -135
- Over: 5.5 (-110)
- Under: 5.5 (-110)
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
St. Louis Blues
Blues C Brayden Schenn: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (+120)
During the regular season, Schenn averaged 2.21 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, he’s had 1.93 shots per game.
His shot volume is trending downward, and he has a tough matchup. In the regular season, the Sharks held opponents to the second-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.2 in the postseason, the Sharks are still a team that limits shots with their defense.
I have Schenn projected for 2.05 shots, but he had just one attempt in Game 1, and I’d bet this at plus money down to +110.
Blues RW Vladimir Tarasenko: Over 3.0 Shots on Goal (-140)
Tarasenko leads the Blues with 3.59 shots on goal per game this year (including the playoffs). We should expect him to get his shots.
He had just one attempt in Game 1, but he’s had three-plus shots in eight of 14 playoff games (57.1%).
This one could easily end in a push, but I have Tarasenko projected for 3.43 shots and would bet the over to -150.
Blues RW David Perron: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
In his 71 games this season (including playoffs), Perron has just 2.08 shots on goal per game, so he’s not a high-usage guy.
In the regular season, he had fewer than 2.5 shots in 39 of 57 games (68.4%).
I have Perron projected for 2.05 shots and would bet this down to -150.
Blues LW Pat Maroon: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100)
Maroon isn’t much of a shooter. In the regular season, he averaged 1.59 shots per game. In the postseason, he’s managed 1.57.
In his 14 playoffs games this year, he’s had more than two shots just thrice. In Game 1, he had zero shots.
I have him projected for 1.36 and would bet the under to -110.
In the FantasyLabs NHL Props Tool, we have the Maroon under graded with a bet quality of 10.
Blues LW Alexander Steen: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (-150)
Playing on the fourth line, Steen is someone to fade. His volume has picked up recently (eight shots in his past five games), but for the playoffs he’s averaged a parsimonious 0.71 shots per game.
And in his 79 games this year (including playoffs), he’s managed just 1.57 shots per game.
I have Steen projected for just 1.11 shots and would bet the under to -180.
San Jose Sharks
Sharks LW Timo Meier: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
Like the Sharks, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has bumped up slightly to 28.9, but the Blues are still one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
Even so, some guys just shoot no matter what. That’s Timo.
In the regular season, he averaged 3.21 shots per game. In the playoffs, he’s had exactly three per game. In Game 1, he had three.
I have him projected for 2.80 shots and would bet the over to -145.
Sharks C Logan Couture: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-105)
In the playoffs, Couture has been aggressive with 3.33 shots per game, and in Game 1 he had four. But in the regular season he averaged just 2.52 per game, and I’m expecting some regression toward the mean.
This could easily end in a push, but I have Couture projected for 2.49 and would bet the under to -150.
Sharks RW Gustav Nyquist: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100)
Playing on the first line with Meier and Couture, the recently acquired Nyquist — he joined the team via a midseason trade — is less of a shooter and more of a facilitator.
In his 34 games with the team, Nyquist has averaged just 1.71 shots per game, and in the postseason, he’s managed just 1.13.
He had zero shots in Game 1.
I have him projected for 1.49 shots, so I wouldn’t bet the under any lower than +100, but I’m definitely leaning to the under.
Sharks LW Evander Kane: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140)
Kane is like Timo — but even more extreme. He’s going to shoot no matter what. In his 90 games this year (including playoffs), Kane has averaged 3.48 shots per game.
He has just four shots in his past three games, but I’m expecting progression to the mean.
I have him projected for 3.23 shots and would bet the over to -165.
Sharks C Tomas Hertl: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-130)
Hertl has fired a team-high 3.67 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he averaged a more modest 2.29 shots per game, and in Game 1 he had just one attempt.
This bet could easily end in a push, but I expect that Hertl will regress. I have him projected for 2.50 shots and would bet the under to -150.
Sharks C Joe Thornton: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
Thornton is like Hertl: His volume has picked up in the playoffs (1.64 shots per game), but he seems likely to regress toward his regular-season average (1.23).
In Game 1, Thornton had only one attempt.
With the tough matchup, I have him projected for 1.15 shots and would bet the under to -145.
Sharks D Brent Burns: Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+115)
After repeatedly betting the Burns under in the regular season and losing almost every time, I finally bet the Burns over for Game 1 — and I lost.
I should probably never bet on Burns again — but I’m going back to the over for Game 2.
Burns has been one of the NHL’s most offensively dominant defensemen for years: The man was born to hit slapshots.
He has a tough matchup, and in the playoffs he’s had just 2.67 shots per game, but in the regular season he averaged a whopping 3.66 shots, and I expect progression: Burns is just too dominant of a player not to get his shots.
I have him projected for just 3.42, so I wouldn’t bet the over any lower than +110, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to bet on Burns at plus money.