Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 5 NHL Player Props I’m Betting

May 19, 2019 10:41 AM EDT
Credit:

Stan Szeto, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Martin Jones

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 5 of the Blues-Sharks series.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 5 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.

Early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had success.

Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 49-26-2 (+19.56).

For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

806-598-43, +126.06 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 392-291-7, +50.35 Units
  • NHL: 115-106-9, +11.99 Units
  • MLB: 49-54-13, -10.19 Units
  • Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
  • NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units

St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks Betting Odds

  • Blues: +114
  • Sharks: -134
  • Over: 5.5 (-110)
  • Under: 5.5 (-110)
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

St. Louis Blues Player Props

Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

Schwartz has been on fire with nine goals in the playoffs, and across his 86 games (including postseason) he’s averaged 2.65 shots on goal.

But he doesn’t have a good matchup. In the regular season, the Sharks held opponents to the second-fewest shots on goal per game with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 30.4 in the postseason, the Sharks are still a team that limits shots with their defense.

Schwartz certainly has the potential to hit the over — he took six shots in Game 3 — but I have Schwartz projected for 2.26 and would bet the under to -120.

Blues RW David Perron: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150)

In his 74 games this season (including playoffs), Perron has just 2.07 shots on goal per game, so he’s not a high-usage guy.

In the regular season, he had fewer than 2.5 shots in 39 of 57 games (68.4%).

In his six games against the Sharks this year, he’s averaged a sullen 1.17 shots on goal.

I have Perron projected for 1.91 shots and would bet the under to -160.

Blues LW Alexander Steen: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Earlier in the series, Steen had a shots prop of 2.0, but I still think there’s a lot of value on the under.

Playing on the fourth line, Steen is someone to fade. In his 82 games this year (including playoffs), he’s managed just 1.55 shots per game — but in the postseason he’s averaged a parsimonious 0.76.

In the playoffs, he’s had fewer than 1.5 shots in 11 of 17 games (64.7%).

I have Steen projected for just 1.10 shots and would bet the under to -140.

In the FantasyLabs NHL Props Tool, the Steen under is our highest-rated prop, offering a bet quality of 10.

San Jose Sharks Player Props

Sharks G Martin Jones: Under 28.5 Saves (-115)

To this point in the series, I haven’t seen much value on the goaltender props, but Jones is intriguing now.

As mentioned earlier, the Sharks make a strong defensive effort to limit opponent shot volume, so I have the Blues projected for just 28.59 shots on goal. The Blues are implied for 2.6 goals, which leaves the Sharks with a projected total of 25.99 saves.

So there’s value on the under anyway, and it’s always possible that Jones could start and then get pulled early if he really struggles.

In their seven games against the Blues this year (including playoffs), the Sharks have had fewer than 28.5 saves six times (85.7%).

I’d bet under 28.5 saves for Jones all the way down to -150.

Sharks C Logan Couture: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-115)

Like the Sharks, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has bumped up slightly to 28.9, but the Blues are still one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.

In the playoffs, Couture has been aggressive with 3.39 shots per game, and he’s had more than three shots in three of the four games this series. But in the regular season he averaged just 2.52 per game, and I’m expecting some regression toward the mean.

This could easily end in a push, but I have Couture projected for 2.45 shots and would bet the under to -150.

Sharks LW Evander Kane: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125)

I lost this bet in Games 1-3, but the Kane over finally paid off in Game 4, and I’m sticking with it for Game 5.

Kane is a shooter. In his 93 games this year (including playoffs), Kane has averaged 3.43 shots. And in his two regular-season games against the Blues, Kane respectively had four and three shots.

Kane has just 1.75 shots per game this series, but he seems likely to progress to the mean. Kane is too aggressive of a player not to get his scoring opportunities at some point.

I have him projected for 3.11 shots and would bet the over to -155.

Sharks C Tomas Hertl: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Hertl is second on the team with 3.28 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he averaged a more modest 2.29, and he’s yet to have more than two shots in any game this series.

I expect that Hertl’s postseason volume will continue to regress toward his regular-season average. I have him projected for 2.40 shots, so this bet is close, but I love the under at plus money. I’d even bet it to -105.

Sharks RW Joe Pavelski: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110)

Pavelski is important to the Sharks, and in his 87 games this year (including playoffs), he’s averaged 2.46 shots per game.

But his matchup is tough, and the team as a whole is likely to see fewer shots.

So I have Pavelski projected for 2.20 and would bet the under to -125.

Sharks C Joe Thornton: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-130)

Thornton has racked up five shots over the past two games, and his volume has picked up in the playoffs (1.71 shots per game), but he seems likely to regress toward his regular-season average (1.23).

An old-timer at the age of 39, Thornton isn’t the player he once was: In the regular season, Thornton had fewer than 1.5 shots in 49 of 73 games (67.1%).

I have him projected for 1.14 shots and would bet the under to -145.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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