Freedman: Blues-Sharks Game 6 NHL Player Props I’m Betting
Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oskar Sundqvist
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Tuesday, he highlights the NHL player props he likes in Game 6 of the Blues-Sharks series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 6 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey: That’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below. But in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 55-29-2 (+21.78).
For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
819-606-43, +128.71 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 399-296-7, +50.79 Units
- NHL: 121-109-9, +14.21 Units
- MLB: 49-54-13, -10.19 Units
- Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
- Sharks: +140
- Blues: -160
- Over: 5.5 (+100)
- Under: 5.5 (-120)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
San Jose Sharks Player Props
Sharks C Logan Couture: Under 3.0 Shots on Goal (-115)
In the playoffs, Couture has been aggressive with a team-high 3.32 shots per game, and for the series he has 3.4 shots per game. But in the regular season he averaged just 2.52 per game, and I’m expecting some regression toward the mean.
Plus, the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game, and in the playoffs, that number has decreased to 28.5. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
This could easily end in a push, but I have Couture projected for 2.40 shots and would bet the under to -155.
Sharks RW Gustav Nyquist: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (-105)
Playing on the first line with Couture and Timo Meier, the recently acquired Nyquist — he joined the team via a midseason trade — is less of a shooter and more of a facilitator.
In his 38 games with the team, Nyquist has averaged just 1.66 shots per game, and in the postseason, he’s managed only 1.16.
He had three shots in Game 5, but in Games 1-4 he had just two shots in total.
I have him projected for 1.39 shots and would bet the under to -160.
Sharks C Joe Thornton: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-125)
Thornton’s volume has picked up in the playoffs (1.61 shots per game), but he seems likely to regress toward his regular-season average (1.23): He’s had fewer than 1.5 shots in three of the five games this series.
An old-timer at the age of 39, Thornton isn’t the player he once was: In the regular season, Thornton had fewer than 1.5 shots in 49 of 73 games (67.1%).
I have him projected for 1.12 shots and would bet the under to -145.
St. Louis Blues Player Props
Blues LW Jaden Schwartz: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)
Schwartz has been on fire with a team-high 12 goals in the playoffs, and across his 87 games (including postseason) he’s averaged 2.70 shots on goal.
But he doesn’t have a good matchup. In the regular season, the Sharks held opponents to the second-fewest shots on goal per game with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 30.9 in the postseason, the Sharks are still a team that limits shots with their defense.
Schwartz certainly has the potential to hit the over — he took six shots in Game 3 and seven in Game 5 — but I have Schwartz projected for 2.35 and would bet the under to -115.
Blues C Brayden Schenn: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
During the regular season, Schenn averaged 2.21 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, he’s had two per game.
His shot volume is trending downward, and he has a tough matchup. In Game 2, I bet the Schenn under at 2.0, so you know I’m hitting it at a higher number. He had five shots in Game 5, but in each of Games 1-4 he had fewer than 2.5.
I have him projected for 1.98 shots and would bet the under to -145.
Blues RW David Perron: Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (+100)
The Perron prop has been at 2.5 for most of the series, but the under still offers some value at 2.0.
In his 75 games this season (including playoffs), Perron has 2.04 shots on goal per game, so he’s not a high-usage guy, and across his seven games against the Sharks this year, he’s averaged just one shot on goal.
I have Perron projected for 1.93 shots, so I wouldn’t go any lower than +100, but I do like the under at plus money.
Blues LW Alexander Steen: Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
Earlier in the series, Steen had a shots prop of 2.0, but I still think there’s value on the under.
Playing on the fourth line, Steen is someone to fade. In his 83 games this year (including playoffs), he’s managed 1.54 shots per game — but in the postseason he’s averaged a parsimonious 0.78.
In the playoffs, he’s had fewer than 1.5 shots in 13 of 18 games (72.2%).
I have Steen projected for just 1.13 shots and would bet the under to -135.
In the FantasyLabs NHL Props Tool, the Steen under has a bet quality of 10 and is one of our highest-rated props.
Blues C Oskar Sundqvist: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
This is probably my favorite prop. In the regular season, Sundqvist averaged just 1.53 shots per game. In the postseason, that number has jumped up to 2.06, but that’s still not anywhere close to 2.5.
In the playoffs, he’s had fewer than 2.5 shots in 13 of 18 games (72.2%).
I have Sundqvist projected for 1.63 shots and would bet the under to -185.