Blues vs. Stars Game 2 Betting Odds, Preview: Dallas Deserved Better in Series Opener
Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports.
- The St. Louis Blues are -135 favorites over the Dallas Stars in Game 2 of their second-round series.
- The Blues won Game 1, 3-2, but the Stars were impressive and simply ran into a red-hot goalie in Jordan Binnington.
- Has the betting market reacted correctly for what should be another tight game?
Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds, Game 2
- Stars odds: +132
- Blues odds: -145
- Over/Under: 5
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
>> All odds as of Friday night. Download The Action Network App to get NHL odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The St. Louis Blues took Game 1 of their series with the Dallas Stars, 3-2, but the truth is that the Blues were probably a little lucky to win. Even though they lost, it is not surprising that the Stars took some money in the early betting for Game 2.
Dallas was very good at 5-on-5 in Game 1, creating 60.4% of the expected goals and owning 54.7% of the shot share (adjusted for score + venue). The Stars also generated 20 shots from the slot and 12 from the inner slot, compared to six and three from the Blues, respectively.
The reason the Stars lost this game? Jordan Binnington was a monster in goal for the Blues and out-performed Ben Bishop in Game 1.
Bishop is one of the league’s strongest goalies this season, so a bounce-back performance is likely and if the Stars can repeat their 5-on-5 performance from Game 1, there is a good chance they can come away with a victory in Game 2.
In gambling on any sport, it is a best practice to not overreact to a small sample size like one game, but the Stars’ upward trend doesn’t seem like it’s a mirage. Over their last 18 games of the regular season Dallas posted a 54% expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 and the Stars were obviously impressive in their six-game victory over the Predators in Round 1.
At the current price, the odds suggest that the Stars have a 43.6% chance of winning Game 1, meaning they’d be a slight underdog on neutral ice and equal rest. That price seems just about right. I was happy to play Dallas in Game 1 at +135 and the numbers from Game 1 and the odds for Game 2 show that it was the right side.
I’ll be looking for a similar number for Game 2 and with the line shifting towards the Blues on Saturday morning, it looks like the Stars may be in range for a play.