Blues vs. Stars Game 3 Betting Odds, Preview: The Series Shifts to Dallas
Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ben Bishop
- The Dallas Stars are -119 favorites over the St. Louis Blues in Game 3 (8 p.m. ET, NBCSN) of their second-round series.
- Will the Stars continue their surprising run through the NHL Playoffs or will the Blues take back the series lead?
- Michael Leboff analyzes the odds and breaks down tonight's lone Stanley Cup Playoff game:
Betting odds: St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars
- Blues odds: +103
- Stars odds: -114
- Over/Under: 5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets
There was very little between the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues in Games 1 and 2, so neither team will be upset with a split as this series heads southwest to Big D.
The driving narrative coming into this fixture was the goaltending. Ben Bishop is in the running for the Vezina Trophy (top goaltender) while Jordan Binnington was nominated for the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) and played the most important role in turning around the Blues’ season.
Binnington has been the better goaltender through two games, but that’s not entirely a good thing. Sure, it’s always a plus to get good netminding, but that also means Stars are getting the better of play at 5-on-5 and boast a 4.36 to 3.13 expected goals advantage after the stage-setters in St. Louis.
Bishop wasn’t very good in Game 1, allowing a pair of iffy goals through the 5-hole, but he bounced back splendidly in Game 2 and owns a .929 save percentage at 5-on-5 against the Blues. That number may not sparkle next to Binnington’s .954, but it will definitely do — especially with Dallas finding ways through the St. Louis defense.
Binnington has clearly been the star of the show for the Blues, while the Stars are getting noteworthy contributions from the second line.
Jason Dickson, Mats Zuccarello and Roope Hintz have worked well together so far and that is a big plus for the Stars, who often rely too heavily on their top line of Alex Radulov, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.
On the back end, Miro Heiskanen continues to be a revelation for Dallas and, along with John Klingberg, gives Dallas two horses on defense. This team may not be terribly deep, but with its best players humming and solid goaltending, it can cover a lot of holes.
Game 3 Betting Analysis
According to The Action Network’s consensus odds, Game 1 closed at -152/+137 and Game 2 at -135/+122, both with the Blues favored. According to those numbers the Stars had an implied probability of 41.2% and 44% (without adjusting for the vig).
For their first game at home against the Blues, the consensus line currently stands at -114/+103 in favor of the Stars. That gives Dallas a 52% chance of winning, which means the adjustment for home-ice advantage from Game 2 to Game 3 was just about 4%.
If you think St. Louis wins this game more than 48 times out of 100, you should be looking toward the Blues. I do not subscribe to that notion and think the Stars are worthy favorites on home ice and still have some value at -120 or better.