Blues vs. Stars Game 7 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Binnington Steal the Show?

Blues vs. Stars Game 7 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Binnington Steal the Show? article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jason Dickinson, Alex Pietrangelo

  • The St. Louis Blues are -153 favorites over the Dallas Stars in Game 7 on Tuesday night.
  • The odds suggest the Blues win this game 59% of the time, but is that number too high?

St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars Game 7 Betting Odds

  • Blues odds: +138
  • Stars odds: -153
  • Over/Under: 5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN

>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


We expected the best-of-7 series between the Stars and Blues to be tight. Both teams are sturdy defensively, have great goaltenders and high-end finishers capable of magic moments.

In fact, Stars head coach Jim Montgomery called Dallas and St. Louis, "mirror images of one another," before the series began.

The 5-on-5 Battle

Stuckey noted in his preview that referees typically put their whistles away for Game 7s. While that has led him towards the over/under, I never bet hockey totals (empty nets, I mean come on) and instead think it means we should look at how these teams have performed at 5-on-5 and try to use that to info to inform our ultimate decision.

The Blues have produced more shot attempts at 5-on-5, which makes sense since the Blues' offense is about puck possession and wearing you down with the cycle. According to The Point Hockey, the Blues have had the puck in the offensive zone for 14 more minutes than the Stars in this series, which is staggering.

However, as the heatmap (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) shows, the Stars have been the better team at generating high-danger scoring chances. This is largely because Dallas generates its offense by creating chances in transition.

Per the Point, the Stars have created 40 scoring chances off the rush in this series and have taken 70 high-danger shots on goal in this series, compared to 58 for St. Louis.

The Battle of the Goaltending

Trying to project goaltending on a game-to-game basis is nearly impossible. There are plenty of descriptive stats that can tell you how a goalie has played, but very few reliable metrics that can give us a concrete idea of how a goalie will play.

That being said, let's talk about some voodoo.

Ben Bishop and Jordan Binnington were two of the best goaltenders in the league this season. Neither netminder was really on the Vezina Trophy radar coming into the year — Binnington had never even made an NHL start before this season — but they both played their respective team into the postseason and Bishop was nominated for the award, while Binnington was nominated for the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year).

With both goalies coming in hot, the prevailing thought was that this series would come down to which goaltender slips up first.

That hasn't been the case, however, as Binnington has clearly been the No. 1 goalie over the first six games. The 25-year-old has a .942 5-on-5 save percentage against the Blues and has saved four goals when you compare his expected goals against (12) to his actual goals against (8) at 5-on-5 in this series.

Those are stellar numbers, and indicate it's more likely Binnington will play well than struggle tonight, but it also doesn't guarantee that he will be lights out in the first Game 7 of his career.

There's also reason to be concerned in the other crease as Bishop took a slapper off his clavicle in Game 6. The 6-foot-7 netminder has said he's fine and he will start the curtain-closer, but it's definitely something to keep in mind.

Game 7 Betting Analysis, Pick

In terms of implied probability, the Action Network consensus odds suggest St. Louis has a 59% chance of winning Game 7.

The current number is a little high when you consider where the Blues closed for their three other home games in this series:

  • Game 1: St. Louis -152
  • Game 2: St. Louis -135
  • Game 5: St. Louis -148

Game 2 seems to be the outlier of the bunch, but I'd be surprised if this number continues to drift away from Dallas.

That is why I'd suggest on betting the Stars sooner rather than later. I already thought the Stars were a good bet at +130 or better on the road and think the market may be overreacting to Bishop's injury or the Game 6 victory by St. Louis.

The Stars lose this game more often than not, but I think it's closer than the 59/41 split the market is indicating. I'm comfortable playing Dallas down to +130 for Game 7.

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