NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview for Bruins vs. Capitals Game 5: How to Bet Elimination Game for Washington (May 23)

NHL Odds, Prediction, Preview for Bruins vs. Capitals Game 5: How to Bet Elimination Game for Washington (May 23) article feature image
Credit:

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Grzelcyk (left) and Charlie McAvoy (right).

  • The Capitals are on the ropes entering Game 5, down 3-1 to the Bruins.
  • Washington's defensive unit has struggled throughout the series, while all of Boston's pairings are thriving through five games.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down where he sees betting value in the matchup in D.C. below.

Bruins vs. Capitals Odds

Bruins Odds-135
Capitals Odds+115
Over/Under5.5
TimeSunday, 7 p.m. ET
TVUSA
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet

The Bruins took a 3-1 series stranglehold after dismantling the Capitals 4-1 on Friday night. Boston was clearly much sharper at both ends of the ice, allowing the Capitals next to nothing before putting the game away early in the third period.

Much has been made in this series about how much better Boston's top two forward units have been than the Capitals' groups, and it's hard for me to argue that as a Caps fan, considering I am generally sweating out 50 seconds of my life every time the perfection trio hits the ice.

Meanwhile, there has been far too little talk however about the differences we are seeing from the two defense cores.

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Almost to a man we have seen Boston's defensive group put forth considerably better efforts. I think that outside of the spectacular play of Dmitry Orlov, you can very fairly argue that every Boston defenseman's play would come as an upgrade to their opponents in this series.

This was most apparent in Game 4, with the Bruins entirely shutting down the Capitals offensively, which is obviously a credit to the forward group, as well. It's easy to see that Boston's defenders are handling transitional play more effectively on average, breaking the puck out of the zone considerably more effectively and consistently forcing dump-ins or turnovers at their blue line.

When we look comparatively at the difference between Boston's No. 1 defensemen in Charlie McAvoy, and Washington's supposed No. 1 in John Carlson, there is no real debate about just how much better McAvoy has been.  Carlson has always been shaky at best defensively but has been notably more of a liability than usual so far in this series. A good example comes on Boston's gigantic game-tying goal in Game 2, with Carlson allowing Taylor Hall to go right by him on the wall ultimately leading to the goal.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.


As a team, the Capitals clearly had their worst effort of the series in Game 4. Although the expected goals numbers do not actually agree with that, I think it was pretty blatantly clear. For a number of Capitals defenders, I believe we have seen play continue to worsen as the series goes along, with Justin Schultz, Zdeno Chara and Brenden Dillon all having some rough sequences in Games 3 and 4, as well as the aforementioned Carlson.

My belief is that Ilya Samsonov has actually been considerably better than Craig Anderson was in Game 1 and 2 between the pipes, regardless of whether his individual numbers agree. The Capitals certainly didn't own the puck by any means in Anderson's starts, but they did a good job of limiting Boston to chances, which were more manageable or coming with at least some pressure.


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Betting Analysis & Pick

With Washington's season on the line, I think we see a more closely contested game here, similar to Games 1-3. The Caps clearly let their frustration boil over midway through Game 4 and while it may not have ultimately been the difference, I do think the group lost the script there.

It's easy to forget this with Boston managing to be up 3-1 after such a dominating performance, but the Caps very realistically could have been up 2-1 with Boston finding ways to tie both Games 2 and 3 late. Both of those games were very hard fought, competitive affairs.

Samsonov is giving the Capitals a chance to win, but Boston took its game to another level in Game 4 and managed to put a good total past the very talented sophomore. Should the Capitals find a way to limit some of the defensive zone errors we saw last time out, I think that we should see a lower total from Boston.

With that said, the Bruins are just playing so well as a group defensively right now and even though I think it is likely that the Capitals put forth a much stronger effort here, I do not think it is likely to lead to many defensive breakdowns from the Bruins. Washington's power play also was notably stagnant on Friday, and it is hard for me to imagine they generate a lot of quality looks, although I am sure lots of new wrinkles were considered at practice Saturday.

Both games that Samsonov has started in this series have gone under, and I certainly think this is a good spot for that trend to continue, particularly if the Capitals can sharpen things up as a group and put together a more disciplined effort in a do-or-die affair. I think there is a good chance that we see a low scoring, tightly contested battle here and I see value on the under at -130. 

Pick: Under 5.5 (-130)

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