Ducks-Maple Leafs Betting Preview: Recency Bias Creating Value

Ducks-Maple Leafs Betting Preview: Recency Bias Creating Value article feature image

Dan Hamilton, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Marner

Betting odds: Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Ducks moneyline: +225
  • Maple Leafs moneyline: -270
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

NHL record: 33-37, +8.52 units

>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets

The Anaheim Ducks got absolutely obliterated by the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday night. Anaheim allowed six goals in the first period and ultimately lost, 9-3, in an embarrassing effort.

It won’t get any easier for the Ducks, who are three points out of the playoffs and mired in a 2-6-2 stretch, as they travel to Toronto on Monday night to play the high-flying Maple Leafs.

The odds reflect that this will be a steep hill to climb for the Ducks as they are +225 (29.7% implied probability) underdogs at the Air Canada Centre despite being in a decent schedule spot as this is Toronto’s third game in four nights.

The betting market is always a ‘What have you done for me lately?’ entity and recency bias is definitely shading this number a little bit. That isn’t to say the Leafs shouldn’t be big favorites, because they are eons better than the Ducks, but recency bias has caused this number to climb too much.

Every predictive metric you look at will show that Toronto is one of the league’s best teams while Anaheim is one of the worst. Anaheim is consistently outshot, out-chanced and outplayed while Toronto does the opposite.

The one thing the Ducks, who average only 2.15 expected goals for per 60 (30th in the NHL), have going for them is that the Leafs allow 2.55 expected goals against per 60 this season.

The Ducks also have the best goaltender in the league in John Gibson. Sure, the Leafs have a terrific netminder themselves, but Gibson — Saturday night non-withstanding — gives Anaheim a chance every night. The 25-year-old will need to be on his game tonight, as he will likely be very busy against one of the game’s most potent offenses.

If you are betting on Anaheim, this isn’t a bet you are expecting to win. That doesn’t make it a bad bet, though, as I think the Ducks have better than a 30% chance of winning on Monday night.

The Bet: Anaheim Ducks +225