Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 2/24: Stars-Blackhawks and a Clash of Styles

Good morning!

A very up-and-down day yesterday for the model, as a couple large edges (Dallas under, Nashville under) won, and a couple other large edges (Sharks over, Ducks over) did not.

A lot of the smaller edges did all win, though, and I came out slightly ahead for the day. Here's hoping with your collection of positions, you did too. Either way, I doubt it went bad for anyone if you paid attention to the market.

I received a message from a hockey-obsessed friend yesterday afternoon that is worth sharing because it speaks to a modeling concept. He asked me if the Oilers-Ducks projection had been adjusted at all for the Connor McDavid suspension. I replied that it had not, but that you could absolutely make an argument it could be, or even should have been.

At this point, you might feel hoodwinked, like somehow you got a raw deal betting an over perhaps without realizing the most impactful offensive player in that game wasn't being factored in.

My model is strictly based on team-level analysis, which some might consider a flaw, but has nevertheless proven successful in this sport. I do make small adjustments for goalie changes, but, again, they are small.

There are a few ways to look at the result last night, specifically:

• There was about 25 cents of closing-line value on the game, so the market clearly moved significantly towards our projections despite McDavid not playing, which is great.
• If we had one more goal in the first period of that game, instead of the first minute of the second period, you (incorrectly) would consider me a genius and we might not even be having this discussion.
• If you are interested in building a model of any kind, consider whether to make it at the team-level or player-level, and the pros and cons of each side.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks: A Clash of Styles

3:05 p.m. ET

As for the games today, the most fun to analyze is clearly Dallas vs. Chicago, a matchup of a the team that has gone over the most vs. the team that has gone under the most.

As always, those trends are irrelevant, but they do speak to the statistics for each team as well, and how goals are allocated.

In this game today, the conservative nature of Dallas and the aggressive nature of Chicago actually end up being a wash.

I project the total at almost exactly 1.5 goals, so really any large deviation one way or another is a mistake, in the opinion of the model.

Some markets opened with -150/+130, which creates a reasonable (7%) edge on the under. Yes that's right, we're playing a Chicago under again! How fun!

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.