Freedman’s Favorite NHL Prop (Feb. 15): How Many Shots Will Mats Zuccarello Take?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks. The NBA All-Star Break starts today, so the prop market is thinner than usual, but we still have a four-game NHL slate to explore for value.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

102-78-8, +25.33 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 42-33-2, +5.30 Units
• NHL: 29-27-5, +4.92 Units
• Golf: 3-3-1, +0.50 Units
• NASCAR: 2-1-0. +1.25 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotics: 5-0-0. +2.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NHL Prop (Feb. 15): Mats Zuccarello Over/Under 2.5 Shots on Goal

• Over 2.5: +130
• Under 2.5: -160

Today's NHL action starts with the Sabres-Rangers game (7 p.m. ET), and New York right winger Mats Zuccarello stands out in the FantasyLabs Props Tool.

Although the over on his shots prop is available at plus-money, we have him projected for 2.89.

For the season, Mats has averaged 2.02 shots on goal per game with an average ice time of 19:51. But his playing time has recently skyrocketed. Over his past 10 games, he's averaged a 22:03 time on ice and 3.1 shots on goal.

And in the month of February, his ice time has increased to 23:04, and his shots on goal has stayed steady at 3.0.

Mats has never played for any NHL team other than the Rangers, lacing up the skates for 505 games for the franchise over the past nine years. He's tentatively expected to be shipped to another team as the Feb. 25 deadline approaches. The trade rumors around him have really picked up over the past day.

In what could be his final game with the team, I don't see Mats being shy about taking his shots.

At 2.5, I’d bet the over all the way to +105, although I wouldn't touch it if the line moves to 3.0.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+130)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.