Canadiens vs Capitals Betting Odds, Picks: Can the Habs Slow Down Washington?

Canadiens vs Capitals Betting Odds, Picks: Can the Habs Slow Down Washington? article feature image
Credit:

Eric Bolte, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals Betting Odds

  • Canadiens odds: +145
  • Capitals odds: -170
  • Over/Under: 6.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Washington Capitals are off and running in 2019-20. The Caps lead the NHL in points, points percentage, goals scored and goal differential. Things look pretty good under the hood for the Caps, who boast a 52.6 expected goal share (xG%), which is the eighth-best mark in the NHL.

The Caps have six players with at least 15 points, including John Carlson, whose 30 points are are good enough for fifth-most in the circuit.

When you have as much talent as Washington does, you can get often get away with below-average peripheral metrics. That often was the case for the Caps — who had a below-average advanced stats portfolio when they won the Stanley Cup — but this season is a little different.

Montreal’s season is also off to a successful start. The Habs have the sixth-highest points percentage in the NHL and currently occupy second place in the loaded Atlantic Division.

The Habs are right behind the Caps with a 52.2 xG% and are one of the best teams in the NHL at generating scoring chances. Montreal creates the fourth-most high-danger chances and fifth-most expected goals for per 60 minutes in the NHL.

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Montreal’s ability to create scoring chances could prove to be the difference. As good as the Capitals have been, they do allow an average of 10.6 high-danger chances per hour at 5-on-5.

The Capitals are the deeper, more talented team, but a look under the hood shows the gap between these two teams may not be as wide as the odds imply. The Habs have already taken some money, but even t the current price, the Capitals have an implied probability of 59.6% and I think that number is a little bit inflated thanks to Washington’s terrific start.

Our market-wide data reports that the Capitals are attracting a vast majority of the tickets, so I am hopeful that the price on Montreal will creep north of +145. At that point, I’ll look to invest on the Habs.