NHL Betting: Can the Ducks Hand the Predators Their First Road Loss?

NHL Betting: Can the Ducks Hand the Predators Their First Road Loss? article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: John Gibson

Betting odds: Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers

  • Canucks moneyline: +120
  • Rangers moneyline: -140
  • Over/Under: 6 (-101/-119)
  • Puck Drop: 7 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


The Canucks and Rangers came into this season with similar expectations.

In terms of shot metrics, Vancouver and New York are basically on par with one another. The Canucks average 50.8 shot attempts per 60 (CF/60) and give up 57.7 shot attempts per 60 (CA/60), giving them a Corsi rating (CF%) of 46.8%. The Rangers generate 53.8 CF/60 but allow 62.4 CA/60, giving them a 46.3 CF%.

The biggest difference between these two teams is the pace they play at. Typically, Ranger games are back-and-forth affairs with a high volume of expected goals (xG) and shot attempts. The Canucks play a below average pace in both shot attempts and expected goals.

The Canucks don’t really generate a ton of scoring chances — they rank 24th in the NHL in xGF/60 — but they should have opportunities tonight against a team that gives up 12.1 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5v5.

At the current market consensus, the Rangers (-140) have a 58.3% chance of winning while the Canucks (+120) sit at 45.5%. I think this much closer to a coin flip than that and there’s value on Vancouver above +115.

Betting odds: Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks

  • Predators moneyline: -155
  • Ducks moneyline: +135
  • Over/Under: 5.5 (-105/-115)
  • Puck drop: 10 p.m. ET

The Nashville Predators are on fire. They lead the league in points (26), non-shootout wins (13), losses (3) and goal differential (+21). Nashville, amazingly, has yet to lose on the road in eight games this season. Sounds like a fun team to bet against.

The Predators biggest strength is their ability to suppress shots. Only three teams allow fewer shot attempts and expected goals against at 5v5 and two teams allow fewer high-danger chances at 5v5.

Nashville’s offensive statistics aren’t nearly as tidy as it ranks in the middle-of-the-road in expected goals for and high-danger scoring chances for per 60. The truth is that they don’t need to excel offensively because two or three goals should do the trick.

Anaheim’s underlying numbers are gross across the board. They rank last in Corsi For (41.5%), xGF/60, xGA/60 and high-danger chances for per 60. These numbers are brutal and should relegate Anaheim to near the bottom of the league table but thanks to John Gibson the Ducks are afloat.

Gibson leads the NHL with an 11.47 Goals Saved Above Average despite having the third-lowest expected save percentage (.905) in the NHL. He is the great equalizer here even up against another stellar goalie in Pekka Rinne (if Rinne gets the nod in the first game of a back-to-back).

This game could be pretty ugly. The Predators play at a slow pace in terms of both shot attempts and scoring chances, so Anaheim could have some success muddying things up. Even if the Ducks succeed in turning this into a slog, they will need a big performance from Gibson — again.

The Predators are clearly the better team but this number suggests they’d beat the Ducks ~64% of the time on neutral ice and that flatters the Preds too much.

Bet the Ducks and pray that Gibson can steal one for us.

The Bet: Anaheim Ducks +135

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