NHL Betting: Will Max Pacioretty Win in Return to Montreal?

Nov 10, 2018 11:04 AM EST

Betting odds: Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres

  • Canucks moneyline: +145
  • Sabres moneyline: -165
  • Over/Under: 6 (-105/-115)
  • Puck drop: 1 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


Two surprising teams meet in Buffalo this afternoon and there’s a good bit of value on the underdog.

Buffalo is the better team and their stats reflect that. They have a Corsi For % (CF%) above 50% and produce more expected goals per 60 minutes than they allow. You can’t say either of those things about the first-place Canucks, but they are getting results despite some suspect underlying metrics.

While Buffalo is the better team, these odds are off. At -165 the odds suggest the Sabres have a 62.3% chance of winning while the Canucks’ implied probability is 40.8%. Home-ice advantage accounts for ~3% in the NHL so if you adjust, that would make the Sabres a -145 favorite on neutral ice against Vancouver.

That number is off and I think the Canucks are worth playing down to +140.

The Bet: Vancouver Canucks +145

Betting odds: Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens

  • Golden Knights moneyline: -110
  • Canadiens moneyline: -110
  • Over/Under: 5.5 (-115/-105)
  • Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

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Credit:

Tom Sczerbowski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Max Pacioretty

Follow Michael J. Leboff on Twitter
@TheBigLeebowski

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