Coyotes-Wild Betting Preview: Which Struggling Team Provides Value?

Coyotes-Wild Betting Preview: Which Struggling Team Provides Value? article feature image
Credit:

Caylor Arnold, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Niklas Hjalmarsson

Betting odds: Arizona Coyotes at Minnesota Wild

  • Coyotes moneyline: +133
  • Wild moneyline: -147
  • Over/under: 5.5
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Channel: NBCSN

>> All odds via Pinnacle and current as of 12 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


(Editor’s note: A previous version of this story had Antti Raanta starting in goal for Arizona. It has since been updated with Darcy Kuemper as the starting goaltender.)

This line makes little sense to me.

The Wild lost to the Predators, 4-2, in Nashville last night. The Coyotes last played on Saturday, losing 3-0 at home to the Sabres. This is a good schedule-spot for Arizona, but can it get the job done on the road? 

While the ‘Yotes 1-3 record looks ugly on the surface, there’s plenty of reasons to believe they can pull the upset on Tuesday night.

Arizona currently ranks third in the NHL with a 58.52% Corsi Rating (which measures shots for and against at even strength) and second in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes (CA/60). The Coyotes have a positive expected goal (xG) difference, as they average 2.43 xG/60 compared to 2.03 xGA/60.

So why are the ‘Yotes still being undervalued? Well, they have scored just two goals (not including the goal awarded for their shootout win) and recorded one win this season. In fact, Arizona has not scored a goal at 5v5 this season. Bananas.

Even if they are having trouble scoring actual goals, everything under the hood checks out for the Coyotes.

The same can’t be said of the Minnesota Wild.

Minnesota only controls 44.7% of the shot share at even strength and is averaging 42.8 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Both of those marks rank in the bottom six in the NHL this season.

This is nothing new for the Wild, though, as they finished as the sixth-worst possession team in the NHL in 2017-18 and made the playoffs based on their ability to limit scoring chances (they finished first in xGA/60 last season).

Minnesota is doing a good job of limiting good scoring chances again to start this campaign, but the task won’t be easy against Arizona, which averages 11.9 High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes at 5v5 (ninth in the NHL).

Admittedly, I’m regularly higher on Arizona than the market is, but the market for this game is dumbfounding. The Wild are on a back-to-back and are just marginally better than Arizona.

The Coyotes will start No. 2 goaltender Darcy Kuemper instead of Antti Raanta, which is a downgrade, but I still think there’s value on backing Arizona. The Wild aren’t a chance-generating machine, so the Coyotes should make Kuemper’s life pretty easy.

The odds at Pinnacle suggest the ‘Yotes have a 42.9% chance of beating Minnesota on Tuesday night. I’d go as far as to say this game is a coin flip and would take Arizona at anything better than +115.

The Bet: Arizona Coyotes +133