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NHL Betting: Has the Market Overreacted to Calgary’s Struggles?

Oct 27, 2018 11:13 PM EDT
Credit:

Candice Ward, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Smith

Betting odds: New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

  • Islanders moneyline: +145
  • Flyers moneyline: -165
  • Over/Under: 6 (-120/+100)
  • Puck drop: 1 p.m. ET

Neither the Flyers (4-6-0, 10 points) nor the Islanders (3-4-1, 7 points) are off to strong starts and their underlying numbers don’t really suggest that they’ve been unlucky. In fact, you could argue both teams are lucky to have as many points as they do given their expected goals (xG)

The Flyers are creating 2.17 xGF per 60 minutes but are allowing 2.66 xGA/60, while the Isles are creating just 1.76 xGF/60 and allowing 2.33 xGA/60.

The Islanders “xG pace” (the amount of xGF + xGA at 5v5 per 60) is the fourth-lowest in the NHL and they actually have done a decent job of limiting quality chances despite owning just 42.2% of the shot share.

The Flyers don’t have great Corsi numbers either (48%) so this could end up being closer than the odds suggest.

Philadelphia is the better team but these odds imply the Flyers have a 62.3% chance of winning against just 40.8%. I’d say these odds underestimate the visitors by a little bit and would suggest playing the Islanders down to +138 (42%).

The Bet: New York Islanders +145

Betting odds: Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames

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