NHL Betting: Let’s Throw Some Money On the Canucks, Shall We?

Betting odds: Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning

• Canucks moneyline: +235
• Lightning moneyline: -275
• Over/Under: 6.5 (-105/-115)
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET

This is the part of my job where I try to convince complete strangers that they should consider throwing their hard-earned money on a really bad hockey team against perhaps the best hockey team.

If you're still with me, I'll do my best to explain.

The Vancouver Canucks came into this season as a 100-1 longshot to win the Stanley Cup. They are in the middle of a rebuild and nobody expected much out of them in 2018-19.

Vancouver's possession numbers and expected goal rates back up the notion that this is a bad team. The Canucks have controlled just shot 40% of the shot share (meaning they are giving up six shot attempts for every four they take at 5v5) and have allowed 3.26 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

None of that screams "bet on this team!" but the Canucks won't be this bad forever. They played Calgary (twice) and Carolina to open the season and those are two strong possession teams. They play another one on Thursday night in the Lightning, but Tampa had some trouble with the Panthers in its lone game this season.

I expect Tampa to win this game. The Lightning are the cream of the NHL crop. The Canucks are almost the polar opposite of that. But this number is still just a little too high.

At the current price, the Canucks have an implied probability of 29.9%. I think that is a little low, and Vancouver is worth a bet, albeit a risky one.

The Bet: Vancouver Canucks +235

Betting odds: Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins

• Golden Knights moneyline: +170
• Penguins moneyline: -200
• Over/Under: 6.5 (-115/-105)
• Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

The Golden Knights are on a back-to-back after losing to Washington, 5-2, in D.C. on Wednesday night. They will play backup goalie, Malcolm Subban, against Pittsburgh.

The Penguins will also be playing their No. 2 goalie, Casey DeSmith, as regular starter Matt Murray is out with a concussion.

This game, should it stay on script, should be a see-saw battle between two teams that like to push the tempo. Vegas and Pittsburgh both have great shot metrics — both teams are above 55.8% in Corsi on the season — and  to start, Pittsburgh creates more expected goals per 60 (xGF/60) than any other team in the NHL.

With two backups playing against teams that love to push the play, this game has all the makings of an exciting, back-and-forth battle. This is all reflected in the in the high Over/Under (6.5 with the Over juiced to -115). All of these variables provide more value on the underdog.

This is game should be wacky. Go Knights.

Bet: Vegas Golden Knights +170

Betting odds: San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers

• Sharks moneyline: -145
• Rangers moneyline: +125
• Over/Under: 6 (-110/-110)
• Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET

The Sharks opened as -170 favorites at Madison Square Garden. That number was pretty inflated considering that they are playing their third game in four days and will be without Joe Thornton.

This morning, someone triple-tapped the Rangers, and now the line sits at -145/+125. That implies that San Jose has a 59.2% chance of winning.

We could get into deeper metrics about the Rangers' defense being a mess and their top nine being pretty weak, but let's just keep it simple. There's a market inefficiency here that can be exploited.

On Monday afternoon the Sharks played the New York Islanders at Barclays Center. In that game, San Jose closed at -175 (63.7%). The Islanders are a better team than the Rangers, not by much, but they are still stronger. I'd take this number at anything better than -150.

The Bet: San Jose Sharks -145