Predators vs. Stars Odds

New Cowboys kicker Joel Kiviranta came on late and converted the PAT to give Dallas a 7-0 lead… Oh wait, sorry, still have one foot into football season over here. It was the Dallas Stars that hung a touchdown with the extra point on the Nashville Predators on Friday night.

Fortunately, over at THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast we were able to get our easiest win of the young NHL season as the Stars made their long-awaited season debut in style with a 7-0 win.

It wasn’t an easy pick before the game, with the lack of information on the Stars, and Sunday’s selection won’t be any easier to pull the trigger on, especially after what we saw Friday.

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Nashville Predators

The Predators came into Dallas well-rested after a game against the Carolina Hurricanes was postponed, but what they saw in the second period would have taken their breath away. After a scoreless first, the Stars scored five times and the game was over for all intents and purposes. 

As you know by now, we try not to get too blinded by the scoreboard and look deeper into the advanced metrics to see what really happened in the game. When we do that here, it paints quite a different picture. 

For the Predators, their output at 5-on-5 not only wasn’t particularly bad, it was actually their best effort when it comes to Expected Goals For (XGF), as they had a season-best 1.66, per Natural Stat Trick. That’s not wildly impressive, but it’s pretty good when measured up against the 0.82 XGF from the Stars.

Dallas Stars

You’re thinking to yourself, “Hang on, Dallas had only 0.82 XGF 5-on-5 in a game they scored SEVEN times in?!” Well, FIVE power play goals and a short-handed goal would explain that without much effort. If the Stars' special teams are going to supply six goals per game this season, we can go ahead and pencil them back in the Stanley Cup Finals. On the flip side, if their 5-on-5 play is going to result in a 33% Expected Goal share, then they’ll have a hard time making the playoffs. 

Naturally, it’s going to be somewhere in between, but the overall point is that this game was much less a domination and much more of a fluke. Oddsmakers see this too, as they’re not overreacting to the scoreboard either and keeping the rematch on Sunday as a virtual coin flip with a PK -110 moneyline.

Anton Khudobin recorded the shutout and Juuse Saros had a rough go of it for the Predators but we expect to see each netminder back between the pipes for the rematch. What I don’t expect is Khudobin to be lights-out, nor do I expect Saros to struggle. 

Predators-Stars Pick

Even with the second-period debacle and subsequent hook, Saros still has a plus-rating GSAA (goals saved above average) on the season, so he’s no slouch. I often say there’s no greater motivator for pro athletes than embarrassment and getting beat 7-0 definitely qualifies. 

So while hockey bettors pile onto the Stars on Sunday night based on the lopsided scoreboard, remember that it gets rebooted for puck drop and this game is just as much a coin flip as it was after the first period on Friday. Except we know a little more than we did then. We know that Nashville is more than capable of playing 5-on-5 with the Stars and if this game doesn’t include a parade to the penalty box, the Predators are going to be a good bet by the time they start 0-0 again. 

I’ll wait as long as I can before I make the TWO bets worth our time on Sunday. To try to get the best price I can on the Predators and the Under.

Pick: Predators (-110 or better) and Under (5.5 or better)