NHL Betting: Do the Senators Have a Prayer Against the Avalanche?

NHL Betting: Do the Senators Have a Prayer Against the Avalanche? article feature image

Marc DesRosiers, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Wideman, Matt Duchene

Betting odds: Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche

  • Senators moneyline: +190
  • Avalanche moneyline: -230
  • Over/Under: 6 (-115/-105)
  • Puck drop: 9 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 12:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets

The Ottawa Senators are the worst team in the NHL. They came into 2018-19 with the lowest season point total and the longest odds to win the Stanley Cup. Despite the low expectations the Sens are off to a surprising 4-3-1 start with an even goal differential.

Even more impressive is that their expected goal numbers (5v5, adjusted for score + venue) are also even. Ottawa averages 2.19 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 2.19 xGA/60 through eight games. Both of those numbers are middle of the road, but hey, that’s pretty impressive for this bunch.

The Avalanche are coming off a 1-0 loss to the Lightning at home on Tuesday night. Colorado is off and running to start this season, going 6-2-2 in its first 10 games with a +12 goal differential.

On the surface things look great but Colorado’s underlying numbers leave something to be desired. The Avs have a 47.6% Corsi Rating, allow more High-Danger Scoring Chances than they generate and they are allowing 2.33 xGA/60 compared to 2.07 xGF/60 at 5v5.

Those numbers suggest that the Avalanche are overperforming and regression is looming.

This isn’t to say that the Senators are in the same class as the Avalanche. Colorado is a much better team than Ottawa, but that doesn’t mean they are the right bet.

The Avalanche come into this game as a -230 home favorite. That implies they have a 69.7% chance of winning the game while the Senators win this game 34.5% of the time. That number is too high and I think there’s value on Ottawa. You lose the bet more often than you win it, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad play.

The Bet: Ottawa Senators +190