Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/10: Two ‘Under’ Teams Collide

Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/10: Two ‘Under’ Teams Collide article feature image
Credit:

Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stanley C. Panther

Good morning!

Despite all the games, yesterday was a really quiet day for actually betting the first-period markets, as I found very few edges (only three vs. openers) and they went 1-2.

There are that many 2%+ edges today, as a comparison, with less than half the number of total games. Granted, these aren’t large edges, either, but yesterday was almost eerily quiet.


A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.


Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, 5 p.m. ET

The headliner in terms of value is Detroit-Florida.

I’ve written about the Panthers here a few times before, but they are a unique team because they allow a LOT of goals, but they don’t allow very many in the first period.

So if you’re studying the full-game markets, you’re likely to get normal or even high totals in their games (6-6.5), but the distribution of those goals will be backloaded.

The Panthers have only allowed 22% of their goals in the first this year (league average 29.4%) and their opponent, Detroit, has been an anemic first period team in general. This combination is what’s creating very low projections.

One other game to mention: The Capitals. They’ve been on fire, and are a popular first-period over team, but with the juice already starting at -190, there is no value according to my projections.


Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.

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