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Locky’s NHL First Period Model, 3/15: A Familiar Duo

Mar 15, 2019 12:09 PM EDT
Credit:

Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Artemi Panarin

Good morning!

Yesterday the model found one large edge (Canadiens-Islanders) which lost, and two smaller edges which both won. It was a net negative day, but a very small one volume-wise considering how many games there were.

Today there are six games on the schedule, and a pair of smaller edges featuring teams we’ve bet on many times before.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.


Columbus and New Jersey are both high-performing first period teams — they both score and allow way more than the league average of their goals in the first period — and each one faces a pretty average team tonight. Columbus plays Carolina and New Jersey plays Vancouver.

Despite the rash of New Jersey recent injuries, their profile has largely remained unaffected, despite the fact their game totals have dropped as a result. They can still give up first-period goals with the best of ’em.

And tonight should be no different, at least most of the time.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

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