Locky’s NHL First Period Model, 4/6: It’s Not Goodbye, It’s See You Next Season
Eric Hartline, USA Today Sports.
Today is the final day of the NHL regular season, and as a result, it’s the final day of these first-period projections. A few people have asked me if I am doing projections for the postseason, but I believe it would most likely require a completely different hypothesis and data set than what I’ve collected for this project.
So tragically, the answer is no, but there is good news. The betting markets remain open to take your wagers anyway, and you’re welcome to do whatever you like.
With today being the final day, and more in flux than usual (and with it being a busy Saturday in general), books have been slow to open a lot of the derivative markets. As of 10 a.m. ET, this is what was available, but that’s why the spreadsheet is helpful. When prices come out, you price.
If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.
To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom.In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.
Today, there are 15 games. The largest edges vs. the openers that were out were a couple of overs: Vancouver-St. Louis and Florida-New Jersey.
The Blues and Canucks aren’t the highest-scoring teams, but St. Louis scores 32.2% of their goals in the first period (league average: just over 29%), and Vancouver is a slightly above-average first period distribution team too. With an implied total of between 5.5-6, the scoring in that game may be early.
Florida and New Jersey are frequent guests of this model, and why should that be any different today with the way Florida allows first-period goals.
As we sign off, I want to say thanks to everyone who took part in this little project, and hopefully you had as much fun as I did sweating the first-period bets as I did, and have some more money than when you started.
Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections
Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.