- There are four games on the NHL slate for Wednesday night, and Joe Holka has picked out two NHL player props with value.
- The Islanders are one of the league's worst teams at producing shots on goal, so there's value in backing the Under 2.0 shots on goal for Leo Komarov.
There are only four games on Wednesday’s slate, but we still have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at FantasyLabs, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two value props I’m eyeing for Wednesday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: All lines via Bovada.
Islanders C Leo Komarov
The pick: Under 2.0 shots on goal (+150)
This line is kind of a joke at +150, considering Komarov isn’t getting power-play time and has averaged only 12.06 minutes of ice time per game over the past 15 days.
It’s a tough matchup on paper, as the Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest shots on goal this season and the Islanders have also put the third-fewest on the net.
If that’s not enough for you, our proprietary shot-prediction metric in models has Komarov pegged for only 1.37 shots on goal Wednesday, below his 1.5 average (38th percentile) over the past year.
Canucks C Bo Horvat
The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (+110)
As we mentioned on NHL Inside the Lab, Vegas has allowed the fewest shots per game to start the season, averaging only 24.3 shots against over its first eight games.
It’s a nice value opportunity to be short on a player with historically average shooting volume (80th percentile over the past year), and as a team, the Canucks own the worst Corsi for expectation on the slate (39.6). Horvat will also be without his linemate Brock Boeser (groin) tonight.