Top NHL Prop Bets for Thursday: Ryan Getzlaf Over/Under 2.5 Shots on Goal?

We have a nice 12-game slate remaining on Thursday, so there are plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are four props I’m eyeing for Thursday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.

Islanders G Thomas Greiss

The pick: Over 29.5 saves (-110)

Robin Lehner is out, so the Islanders should leave Greiss in to get absolutely shelled by Pittsburgh tonight.

Condolences, Islanders fans.

But seriously, it’s a pretty easy over situation here. Our proprietary save-prediction metric has Greiss projected for 34.82 saves, slightly edging out John Gibson (34.66) for the slate lead.

New York has allowed the seventh-most shots on goal per game (34.1) in the NHL, and as we talked about on NHL Inside the Lab, the Penguins own our highest Corsi for expectation today.

Capitals D John Carlson

The pick: Under 2.5 shots (+100)

Montreal has allowed the fifth-fewest Corsi on the slate over the past month, which is tough news for Carlson, as he has seen his shots per game dip from his 2.84 yearly average to 2.30 over the past month.

The main concern for me is his lack of power play shot volume; he's averaging only a half-shot per game on the man advantage over the past month.

The Capitals own the best power-play percentage in the league (37.1%) and the shots are flowing through Alex Ovechkin (1.7 PP shots per game) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (1.1) over that same time period.

Blues W Vladimir Tarasenko

The pick: Under 3.5 shots (+105)

The Golden Knights-Blues game is shaping up to be one of the slowest-paced matchups on the entire slate, so naturally, it is set up for a lack of shooting volume on both sides.

Taking a value flyer on a high-volume shooter to perform below expectation, averaging 3.93 and 4.5 shots per game over the past month, respectively, makes a lot of sense. Vegas has allowed the lowest Corsi on the slate over the past month.

Ducks C Ryan Getzlaf

The pick: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+130)

I’ve actively been avoiding Getzlaf in DFS in the short term… and I’ve paid the price for it, as he’s seen his 2.18 shots per game over the past year spike to 3.33 over the past 15 days.

Getzlaf is probably due to regress in the near future, but tonight’s matchup against the Rangers — third-most shots against this season — has me interested at +130 that he keeps it going for at least one more night. The pace should be up as well, as both defenses have allowed a top-five Corsi mark over the past month.