Red Wings at Canadiens Odds, Preview: Can Detroit Pull Off Another Upset?

Red Wings at Canadiens Odds, Preview: Can Detroit Pull Off Another Upset? article feature image
Credit:

Nick Turchiaro, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brendan Gallagher, Carey Price

Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens

  • Red Wings odds: +155
  • Canadiens odds: -185
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


The Montreal Canadiens have been the most entertaining team to watch this season. There have been a combined 25 goals (not including the goal awarded for shootout wins) scored in Montreal's three games this season and every contest has gone past regulation.

After losing in overtime against Buffalo on Wednesday night, the Habs are back in action 24 hours later against the Detroit Red Wings in The City of A Hundred Steeples.

Last season, the Canadiens were one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking inside the top-5 in expected goals allowed, averaging 2.13 xGA/60.

The beginning of this year has been a bit of a struggle defensively for Montreal, though it has played Carolina and Toronto, two of the best teams in the NHL. Still, there's some defensive deficiencies Claude Julien will need to work out.

As topsy-turvy as Canadiens games have been, the Wings have played a relatively dull style through their first three games, but it's been effective. Detroit has already upset Nashville and Dallas en route to a 2-1 start to the season.

Detroit leaked like a sieve last season, grading out as one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL:

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

With very little to offer going forward outside of its top line, Detroit had to improve its defensive play to improve in 2019-20.

Through three games this season, the Wings have protected the house a lot better:

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Of course this is a very small sample size, but it looks like Detroit is making a considered effort to keep the action to the outside, which should help keep the Wings in games against teams with more talent.

There's a wide gulf in skill between these two teams, but if Detroit does continue to muddy games effectively, it will be a live dog against better teams and the job should be slightly easier tonight, considering it will be the fresher team.

The Canadiens have not looked like themselves in their own zone to start the season, so I'm willing to take a chance on the Wings making good on a couple of looks and then taking care of things in their own end.

The current odds imply that Montreal has a 62.3% chance of winning, so you'd need Detroit to win this game more than 37.7% of the time to see any value. I think they tick that box in this instance and would play them at any number north of +145.


Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and HockeyViz.

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