Red Wings at Jets Betting Odds, Pick: Just How Bad Is Detroit?

Red Wings at Jets Betting Odds, Pick: Just How Bad Is Detroit? article feature image
Credit:

Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrik Laine

Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets Odds

  • Red Wings odds: +212
  • Jets odds: -265
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Odds as of Monday night and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


The Detroit Red Wings haven’t won a hockey game since Nov. 12 when they beat Anaheim, 4-3, in overtime. That win gave the Red Wings three victories on the bounce, including two-pointers against Boston and Vegas, two of the league’s best teams.

It’s likely that three-game streak in early November was the peak of Detroit’s miserable season.

The Red Wings are in a league of their own this season and are on pace to finish with 45 points. Let’s put that in perspective. No team in the league has finished with fewer than 48 points (2016-17 Avalanche) since the NHL eliminated ties back in 2005-06 and the last time a team finished with less than 46 points in an 82-game season was in 1997-98 when the Tampa Bay Lightning notched 44 points.

It’s likely that Detroit will end up north of 45 points, most likely in the 50-60 range, but there’s no denying that things are ugly in HockeyTown.

That being said, this is the NHL and that means you’re going to be betting on terrible teams more often than you like. I don’t blame anybody for sitting out a Red Wings game, but the there’s cause for optimism in this matchup.

In fact, Detroit boasts a better expected goals percentage (xG%) than their opponents on Tuesday night, the Winnipeg Jets.

The Winnipeg Jets are a deeply flawed team. Most casual fans and bettors will look at their 18-10-2 record and .633 points percentage and say that can’t be true, but the Jets are extremely fortunate to be where they are in the standings considering how they’ve played at 5-on-5 this season.

Winnipeg ranks 30th in expected goals share at 43.7% and dead last in high-danger chance share at 40.6%. The Jets have problems at both ends of the ice as they create the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (1.99) and allow the fourth-most expected goals per hour (2.55) in the NHL.

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Considering the workload he’s dealt with, there’s a strong case to be made that Connor Hellebuyck, who seems to be fond of alternating great and poor seasons for Winnipeg, is the league’s MVP to this point. The 26-year-old goalie leads the league with 11.98 Goals Saved Above Expectations (GSAx) and his .933 save percentage is third-best in the NHL.

Even though the Jets are allowing 2.57 expected goals per 60 minutes, they have surrendered an average of 2.1 goals per hour at 5-on-5. It’s hard to imagine that Hellebuyck will keep this up for an entire season given his workload.

It is very likely that the Jets win on Tuesday night. Winnipeg’s top six, which includes Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle and Nikolaj Ehlers, could have its way with the Red Wings. But, the Jets’ statistical profile suggests this game could play out a lot closer than the odds suggest. And they suggest that Winnipeg wins this game 69.4% of the time.

It’s a bet you lose more often than not, but the value in this matchup is clearly with the big underdog. The long and short of it is that Winnipeg isn’t good enough to be -265 favorites over any team in the NHL, even the Red Wings.

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