Bruins vs. Blues Game 6 Betting Odds, Preview: Will St. Louis Close Out Stanley Cup Final?

Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Betting Odds, Bruins at Blues

• Bruins odds: +101
• Blues odds: -111
• Over/Under: 5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC

The St. Louis Blues took advantage of a huge break in their Game 5 win over the Boston Bruins on Thursday night. A missed trip by Tyler Bozak in the offensive zone led to David Perron's game-winning goal and the Blues held on, 2-1, to take a 3-2 series lead.

The Bruins were the better team throughout Game 5, creating 2.29 expected goals for (xGF) at 5-on-5 compared to 1.46 xGA. The B's also attempted nine more shots, including 12 more shots on goal, and seven more high-danger scoring chances.

Unfortunately for Bruins' bettors and fans, Jordan Binnington stood tall in goal for St. Louis and — with the help of the officials — stole Game 5, putting the Blues within one game of the franchise's first Stanley Cup.

Game 5 served as another reminder that dumb luck plays a huge role in hockey. It is a best practice for bettors not to get caught up in narratives and there will be plenty of storylines bandied about before Game 6.

Here's a sampling:

Will the Bruins be able to put the bad call in Game 5 behind them?

Will the Blues be able to handle the pressure of being a win away from the franchise's first Stanley Cup?

Simply put, that stuff doesn't matter. Ignore the noise and let's get down to business.

Game 6 Betting Analysis

There's very little separating these two teams at 5-on-5.

The Bruins have the better expected goals (8.2 to 7.6) and high-danger scoring chance (34 to 31) rates but St. Louis has had the majority (53.2%) of the shot share.

Overall, both teams are sticking to their identity, playing defense-first hockey and limiting scoring chances against. Over the course of the regular season the Bruins and Blues ranked second and third, respectively, in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes.

If you took their averages during this series, Boston at 1.92 xGA/60 and St. Louis at 2.08, and applied them to the league-wide rankings, Bruins and Blues would rank first and fourth overall, respectively.

We can probably expect another tight, defensive game on Sunday night and with the Bruins blueline banged up, I think the Blues have a slight edge in this game.

I think the market has been a little high on Boston for most of this series and, as of Saturday evening, that seems to be the case again for Game 6 (odds per The Action Network's consensus odds).

• Game 1: Boston -175 (61.9% implied probability) vs. St. Louis +155 (38.1%)
• Game 2: Boston -165 (60.9%) vs. St. Louis +150
• Game 3: St. Louis -120 (52.2%) vs. Boston +100
• Game 4: St. Louis -113 (51.7%) vs. Boston +102
• Game 5: Boston -160 (60.1%) vs. St. Louis +145
• Game 6: St. Louis -111 (51.4%) vs. Boston +101

St. Louis has held its own with Boston at 5-on-5 and with the B's banged up in the back, I think this a good opportunity to bet on the Blues at what could end up being their best price for a home game in this series.

At the listed odds, the market is implying that Boston would have a 53.6% chance of winning this game on neutral ice (home-ice advantage is worth ~5% in the NHL). With Matt Grzelcyk possibly out and Zdeno Chara banged up, I think that overrates the Bruins. Boston may be the better team, but I think the gap is tighter than these odds suggest.

The Blues seemed to have proved that already.