Bruins vs. Blues Game 4 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Boston Continue to Roll?

Bruins vs. Blues Game 4 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Boston Continue to Roll? article feature image

Billy Hurst, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tuukka Rask, David Perron

  • There's not much between the odds for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues.
  • After a 7-2 win in Game 3, are the Bruins still undervalued on the road?

Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues, Stanley Cup Game 4 Betting Odds

  • Bruins odds: -110
  • Blues odds: -110
  • Over/Under: 5.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

>> All odds as of 10 p.m. ET on Sunday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets

The Boston Bruins thrashed the St. Louis Blues, 7-2, in Game 3 on Saturday night to take a 2-1 series lead. It may feel like all hope is lost for the Blues after a game like that but there’s more to this story than crooked numbers.

First, credit where it’s due. The Bruins handled the a big moment on Saturday night. It had been 49 years since there was a Stanley Cup Final game in St. Louis and the crowd was bonkers.

The Bruins remained unfazed and quieted the crowd with three goals in the first period, including a crowd-quieter on the power play from Patrice Bergeron.

Charlie Coyle doubled Boston’s lead with just under three minutes to play, but the back-breaker came on Sean Kuraly’s goal late in the period. Not only was it a bad goal for the soon-to-be-pulled Jordan Binnington to give up, but it also appeared that Kuraly was offside, prompting the Blues to challenge the call. The NHL upheld the goal, meaning the Blues were charged with a 2-minute minor for the incorrect challenge. They paid for it.

David Pastrnak put the Bruins out of reach with a power-play goal 41 seconds into the middle period. The Blues never really made things all that interesting after that and the Bruins earned back their home-ice advantage with a comprehensive victory.

A lopsided win like that will usually cause bookmakers to adjust the line, game-to-game, and they have for Game 4 — although it’s not a big move. After closing as high as -125 in Game 3, the Blues are down to -110 at most sportsbooks for Monday night’s contest.

The score of a game will always have a pretty big effect on the way the rest of the game plays out. If a team is down, 3-0, in the second period it will likely push the play and take more chances.

On the other side, if a team is ahead 3-0, it will likely play more pragmatically. Thus, it’s hard to really make too much out of what happened in Game 3. What is important, though, is we note that the Bruins’ power play remains scorching hot.

Two of Boston’s first four goals came on the man advantage and the Bruins ended the night 4-for-4 on the power play on four shots. The B’s are 6-for-14 on the power play in the Stanley Cup and 13-for-29 in the past seven games.

In terms of success rate, only the 1981 New York Islanders have a better power play than Boston’s (35.9%) this postseason (min. 15 games played).

It’s clear that Boston’s power play, which has scored at least one goal in its last seven games, is a huge part of the B’s success this postseason, but what about at 5-on-5?

In 137 minutes of 5-on-5 action, the Blues and Bruins are tied with five goals apiece and when you adjust for score effects, the Blues have a slightly better shot share (51.4%) and high-danger chance rate (51.8%) while the Bruins have created more expected goals (5.07 to 4.96).

The Blues will need a much better effort from their goaltender and penalty kill in Game 4, but most importantly they’ll need to stay out of the box. Boston’s power play should come back down to earth at some point, but some point may be next November, so better safe than sorry.

At 5-on-5 this series has been pretty much a coin flip but a couple of miscues from Binnington and the Blues have proved to be the difference.

Betting against the Bruins this postseason has not been fun. Boston has won 9 of its last 10 games and at times has looked unbeatable. If you want to bet on the Bruins for Game 4 because you think they are going to win, not many people will argue with you. However, I still have the Blues as the value-side in this game.

At -110/-110, each team has a 50% chance of winning this game when you convert the odds to implied probability. Despite looking poor in two of their last three games, the Blues are a fantastic team and should be bigger favorites on home ice.

I will say that if you are betting St. Louis, you likely can wait out the market. Bettors tend to rely heavily on recent performance and Boston’s current form is pretty damn good.

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