Golden Knights vs. Wild Odds, Prediction, Preview: How To Back Huge Game 3 Matchup (May, 20)
(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Kirill Kaprizov (L) and Chandler Stephenson.
- The series head to Minnesota as the Wild host the Golden Knights in Game 3 on Thursday night.
- Minnesota opened as +190 underdogs to advance to the next round but after splitting the series on the road, it's down to +145 odds.
- Pete Truszkowski explains why he thinks the Wild are worth backing in Game 3 at home.
Golden Knights vs. Wild Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -127 |
| Wild Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 |
| Time | Thursday, 9:30 pm ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. | |
Entering the playoffs, many saw the Vegas Golden Knights as the team most likely to challenge the Colorado Avalanche on their quest to hoist the Stanley Cup. Vegas entered as considerable favorites to eliminate the Minnesota Wild in this first-round series. It might be surprising to some to see the Wild leave Las Vegas with a split of the first two games.
However, the Wild have been good to hockey bettors all season long. Their analytical profile suggests a very good team that’s more than capable of making this a series and even winning it outright. With the series moving back to Minnesota for Game Three, where does the betting value lie?
Not Much Separating Golden Knights and Wild
The Vegas Golden Knights finished with five more wins and seven more points in the standings than the Minnesota Wild. The margin was not insignificant over a shortened season. However, a closer look at these teams shows that they might be even more evenly matched than they appear. The below statistics are from the regular season.
| Stat | Vegas | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5) | 2.93 | 2.76 |
| Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.11 | 2.36 |
| Goal Differential per 60 (5-on-5) | +0.82 | +0.39 |
| Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.69 | 2.32 |
| Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.34 | 2.12 |
| Expected Goal Differential per 60 (5-on-5) | +0.35 | +0.18 |
| High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 (5-on-5) | 11.82 | 10.1 |
| High-Danger Scoring Chances Allowed per 60 (5-on-5) | 10.29 | 8.13 |
| Power Play % | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| Penalty Kill % | 86.8% | 80.8% |
| Expected Save Percentage | 93.63% | 94.82% |
| Save Percentage (starting goalie) | .928 | .915 |
| Goals Saved Above Expectation (starting goalie) | +17.9 | -2.2 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.
Vegas did a better job of driving play offensively and generating shot attempts, but this won't frighten the Wild. Minnesota's defensive system is based on limiting the quality and not necessarily the quantity of their opponents' chances. No team gave up less high danger chances per hour at 5-on-5 than Minnesota.
If there's one area where Vegas possesses a clear advantage, it's between the pipes. Cam Talbot is a solid goalie that produced fine results, but Marc-Andre Fleury had a tremendous resurgent season for the Golden Knights posting the third-best GSAx in the league. With that being said, Minnesota's expected save percentage was the third best in the league. This means they usually make Talbot's job easy.
What We've Learned So Far
The teams have split the first two games of this series, and Minnesota has done nothing to dispel the notion that they can go toe-to-toe with Vegas. In fact, Minnesota has posted nearly a 56% expected goal rate through the first two games. They've generated 21 high danger chances while allowing just 15.
Game 1 of this series went to overtime scoreless, and then we had to wait nearly half the game for a goal in Game 2. The teams have combined for just five goals thus far. Both goaltenders have been spectacular as Talbot has stopped 67 of 70 shots (95.7%) and Fleury has turned aside 63 of 65 (96.9%).
Max Pacioretty has missed the first two games of this series and will be a game-time decision for Game 3. His presence has been sorely missed as Vegas' lack of finishing ability was an issue in the first game. He's the best pure goal scorer on the roster and adds a dangerous element to their powerplay. If he returns, Vegas will get a significant boost.
Kirill Kaprizov will likely win the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie, but he's yet to get on the board in these playoffs. However, Kaprizov along with linemates Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello have played to a 65.2% expected goal rate. With coach Dean Evason now in control of line matchups, it'll be interesting to see whether Kaprizov can get going against potentially lesser competition.
Golden Knights vs. Wild Best Bet
In my opinion, even prior to this series, there wasn't much separating these teams. The oddsmakers have adjusted as well, as Minnesota opened the series as +190 underdogs to advance. After splitting on the road, Minnesota comes back to the "State of Hockey" in control of home-ice advantage and now sitting at +145 to advance.
While the value isn't as good as it was a few days ago, I do still think there's value on the Wild at this number. It's implied that Vegas has a 65% chance of winning this series currently, and I think that's much too high. I'd give Vegas closer to a 55% chance to advance, which means there's solid value on Minnesota at +145 to win this series.
In terms of Game 3, I'd put the win probability at close to 50/50. Minnesota has been the slightly better team through two games, but Vegas likely has an edge in talent level and goaltending. However, that edge is mitigated by the fact the Wild now become the home team.
The Pick: At +110, I believe that there's once again value on Minnesota in this series.
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