Propbetguy

Coming back from injury - he got up to 77 pitches in his last rehab start, but was lit up. 5.5 was right on his average last season (under in 13/27 starts, averaged a K every 18 pitches). Now gets the Nats who K at a below avg rate (21% vs righties), and have a decent history vs Verlander.

This season, in games without Zach LaVine, when Ayo has played just 30+ minutes against a team in the bottom half of the league defensively versus spot up shooters, he’s 14/18 to the over. I know it’s a lot of caveats, but the only risk here is the minutes, and he just came off playing 41 vs the Hawks. Caruso tweaked his ankle, so he might not go or be limited, which would only add to the upside here. But the Heat allowed the 2nd most ppg to spot up shooting, at the highest frequency. Vucevic is in a tough spot vs Bam, and Spo will likely gameplan to slow down DDR (with Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith). Coby White likely won’t have the free driving lanes has had vs the Hawks either - Ayo should be in a solid spot from a volume perspective. Averaged 16.8 ppg since the All Star break too. Game will be slow, but it’s a great spot matchup-wise for Ayo.

Talked about this one on VSIN. No Zion, Ingram doesn’t look good - Pels will need scoring. Good matchup for spot up shooting. Murphy 20 ppg in April and 17 ppg in 34 mpg since the ASB. He should see 36+ minutes in this one.

This is the knock on Snell - he doesn’t pitch deep into games. Only 4 and 3 IP so far, and even with a pitch count cap, he was trending to stay under this line in both. 4.4 pitches per PA so far, after leading qualifiers with 4.25 last season. DBacks are 8th in pitches per PA (3.96), and have the 7th lowest chase rate. And so far, the DBacks are top 6 in wRC+ and OPS vs lefties. Only up to 78 pitches - highly doubt he’d be pushed past 85 at the end of the 5th inning. He started the season last year 13/24 before going on a run to the end year. He’s not pitching like that guy right now, so I’ll fade him in a tough matchup.

Against teams who rank in the top 15 of both PnR ball handlers and points allowed at the rim, Wagner was under this line in 15/20 games, including 3/3 vs CLE. Cavs ranked 6th vs the PnR and 11th in the restricted area - but both are likely boosted for the playoffs with Allen/Mobley healthy and playing together. Wagner only shot 31.5% on jumpers this season on the road (28% from three) - should make it tough for him to push past this line.

It’s a line he’s hit in 9/L12 vs the Clippers in the regular season, and in 23/L25 in the regular season. Clippers will play most lineups with a low usage wing on the floor (Mann, Coffey), so even with though they’re a slower, lower volume team (7th fewest rebounds allowed per game), I see it as a plus spot from an individual matchup perspective. Either way, Doncic is averaging 10.2 rpg since the Mavs changed their lineup (starting DJJ), and is even more of a lock to hit 36+ minutes (with upside for more) being that it’s the playoffs.