Greg Matherne's Picks
Christopher Bell +2500
I'm disappointed that 25-1 is the best I can get, when he opened there at DK on Monday I was hoping that Caesars would go longer, but this was a rare situation where they went shorter. Anyway, 25-1 is still a good bet, here is why: Bell has been absurdly fast on these tracks, has the pole in both points races at 1.5s. He has been able to work his way through the field when he has fallen back. The Toyotas in general are crushing the 1.5s. BUT: he has been wrecking himself which isn’t good, his long run speed has been slower than you might hope. He isn’t a slam dunk here, but he has been good enough at the 1.5s to earn a “large sprinkle” at 25-1. Waiting on more books to open T5/10 because I think there could be value on him in those markets.
Kyle Busch +130 (Top 5)
Bally/Elite T5 lines are here! I love KFB this weekend. He has arguably been the best driver at the 1.5s this year, with consistency across all three 1.5s so far and I have no doubt that but for the blown tire at Texas he was winning the Allstar Race last week. This is probably on the boarder of value but the Toyotas have just been absolute fire at 1.5s this year. I’m riding with Rowdy for a T5 here.
Christopher Bell +420 (Top 5)
Bally/Elite again: I already have a “large sprinkle” on Bell outright at 25-1, but I didn’t go bigger there because he hasn’t quite managed to seal the deal at the 1.5s in the Cup Series but there is no reason the 20 shouldn’t be up front at the end this week. He was T5 at Texas before he found the wall. The Toyotas are the cars to beat this week, I’m happy with this long number for Bell T5.
Denny Hamlin +250 (Top 5)
Another Bally/Elite line Noticing a trend here? It’s about the Toyotas. JGR has brought it to the 1.5s. @nick_giffen put a bit on Hamlin outright and I’d like that if I didn’t have this great lines T5 like from Bally. Hamlin had another great day at Texas, where he only had 187 miles to make up poor qualifying. The 600 miles this weekend is more than enough time to recover from any mistakes in qualifying or even early in the race. My biggest concern driving me to T5s rather than outrights is that NASCAR put resin down this week. The Next Gen has shown it isn’t the same follow the leader at Kansas and Vegas where but with the resin at Texas passing the leader wasn’t possible. I’d rather have the built in buffer of a T5 (or T3) if this is the case again this week. Given the great T5 lines at Bally I’m trending that way.
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