2020 Alabama Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Will Joe Biden Carry Key Southern State on Super Tuesday?

2020 Alabama Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Will Joe Biden Carry Key Southern State on Super Tuesday? article feature image

Photo credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • Joe Biden is a massive -2500 favorite (juice-free implied probability of 85.1%) to win the most delegates in Alabama.
  • Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Alabama has 52 delegates, or about 1.4% of the total number in the primary.
  • The betting market has Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg tied for second place at +1400 odds, or an implied probability of 5.9%.

Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Alabama to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Entering Tuesday, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former VP Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.

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The candidates will compete for 52 total delegates in Alabama, which makes up about 1.4% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair gives him -2500 odds (bet $2,500 odds to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 85.1%.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market, as its model currently gives Biden a 82% chance of winning a majority of delegates. It has him forecasted to win 25 of the 52 delegates.

Tied for second place are Sanders and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who are both at +1400 odds — or a 5.9% implied probability. They’re forecasted to win 12 and 13 delegates, respectively, according to FiveThirtyEight.

See the full Alabama primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Alabama Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -2500 means that if you bet $2,500 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +1400 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,400.

  • Joe Biden: -2500, 85.1% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +1400, 5.9% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +1400, 5.9% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability

More 2020 Democratic Primary & Super Tuesday Odds Coverage

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