2020 California Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Sanders Expected to Roll on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images. Pictured: Voters prepare their ballots in voting booths during early voting for the California presidential primary election at an L.A. County ‘vote center’ on March 1, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.
- Bernie Sanders is a massive -4000 favorite (juice-free implied probability of 86.7%) to win the most delegates in California, the largest state in the primary.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and California has just over 10% of the primary's total delegates.
- The betting market has Joe Biden (+1000, 8.1% implied probability) with the second-highest odds in California, and no other candidate is below +3300 (or 33/1).
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in California to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary.
California has the most delegates to give in the U.S. at 415, which is just over 10% of the total delegate number. And it seems like Sanders is in a strong position to win the majority of those delegates.
European sportsbook Betfair lists him at -4000 odds (bet $4,000 to win $100) to win the California primary; after removing juice, that’s an implied probability of 86.7%. Politics site FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish on his chances, giving him an 89% chance of winning the most delegates.
Biden is second on the list at +1000 or an 8.1% implied probability. He’s the only candidate below 33-1, showing just how much of a massive favorite Sanders is to win the nation’s largest state.
See the full California primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 California Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -4000 means that if you bet $4,000 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +1000 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,000.
- Bernie Sanders: -4000, 86.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1000, 8.1% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.6% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability