2020 Colorado Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Sanders Expected to Win in a Landslide on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders
- Bernie Sanders is a -2500 favorite (juice-free implied probability of 83.7%) to win the most delegates in Colorado.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Colorado has 67 delegates, or about 1.8% of the total number in the primary.
- Joe Biden is second in the odds with a 6.7% implied probability to win, and Elizabeth Warren is third at 5.8%.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Colorado to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 67 total delegates in Colorado, which makes up about 1.8% of the total number in the primary. Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -2500 odds (bet $2,500 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 83.7%.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is actually slightly more bullish on Sanders’ chances, giving him an 87% chance to win a majority of delegates. He’s forecasted currently to win 30 delegates, just under half the total.
No other candidate in FiveThirtyEight’s model has even a 10% chance to win a majority of delegates, which lines up with the betting market. Betfair has Joe Biden in second at +1200, or a 6.7% implied probability to win. Elizabeth Warren is actually third, ahead of Michael Bloomberg, in the progressive state with +1400 odds, or a 5.8% implied probability.
See the full Colorado primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Colorado Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -2500 means that if you bet $2,500 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +1200 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,200.
- Bernie Sanders: -2500, 83.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1200, 6.7% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +1400, 5.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2500, 3.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.4% implied probability