2020 Democratic Primary Picks & Predictions: How Arizona, Florida & Illinois Will Play Out on Tuesday
Photo credit: JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
Super Tuesday was anything but that for Bernie Sanders in his battle with Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Vermont senator lost five of six primary contests last week, with the state of Washington most recently going to Biden late Monday with 95% of precincts reporting.
That put Biden, whose campaign was on life support before a blowout win in South Carolina, firmly in control of momentum and delegates.
Four Three states — Ohio postponed voting — head to the polls today despite the nation (and world for that matter) battling the coronavirus pandemic that has turned everything upside down. Arizona, Florida and Illinois are on the slate, with a total of 441 delegates up for grabs. Florida is the biggest prize of the night, with 219 delegates available.
And if the polls leading into Tuesday’s primaries are even close to correct, the former vice president could very well deliver the ultimate knockout blow to the Vermont senator’s campaign.
As of Monday at 9 p.m. ET, Biden held an 898-745 lead in pledged delegates, and that advantage should balloon in Tuesday's contests.
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Biden holds a whopping 38-point lead in the latest Emerson College poll, conducted between March 11 and March 12. Gravis polling had Biden with a 41-point advantage, and Univision showed Biden up 38 points.
Biden is rolling along in Illinois, where 155 delegates are in play. The Democratic front-runner leads Sanders by 21 points in the latest Emerson poll.
On paper, the only place where Sanders could have a shot at an upset win is in Arizona. However, Sanders trails by an average of 18 points in three of the latest polls, according to RealClear Politics.
If you’re looking for something to wager on Tuesday, there's essentially no value. European oddsmaker Ladbrokes has nothing on the board when it comes to the three states being contested.
Fellow European oddsmaker Unibet does have wagering opportunities but has tabbed Biden as the 1/100 favorite to win any of the three states. In simple terms, Sanders has a 1 in 100 shot at taking any of the states. If you wagered $100 on Biden to win any of those states, you would score a $1 profit with a victory.
I can’t see anything but Biden hammering Sanders across the country. The majority of Democratic voters and the party’s national committee want this wrapped up as soon as possible, with the hope Sanders will suspend his campaign and clear the way for Biden’s showdown with President Donald Trump.
The only thing left to be determined after Tuesday’s contests could be who Biden selects as his vice president, which he announced would be a woman during Sunday’s debate. I will take a look at the latest odds for vice president later this week and give you my pick for his likely running mate going into November’s general election.
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