2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Elizabeth Warren & Bernie Sanders in a Battle on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images. Pictured: Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren is a senator from Massachusetts, and yet she's second in odds (+200, 28.0% non-juiced implied probability) to win the primary there tomorrow behind Bernie Sanders (-300, 63.0% implied probability).
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Massachusetts has 91 delegates, or about 2.4% of the total number in the primary.
- It seems to be a two-person race between progressives Warren and Sanders; Joe Biden is in a distant third at 5.0% odds.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Massachusetts to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 91 total delegates in Massachusetts, which makes up about 2.4% of the total number in the primary. Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -300 odds (bet $300 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 63.0%.
It’s actually a bit surprising to see Sanders as the betting market favorite, as fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren is a senator there. She is a strong second right now with +200 odds, giving her a probability of 28.0%.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight agrees with the betting market, as their model is pegging Sanders with a 67% chance of winning a majority of delegates. They have him forecasted to win an average of 33 of the 91 delegates.
Biden is a distant third in Massachusetts with a 5.0% implied probability, followed by Michael Bloomberg and Tulsi Gabbard.
This will be a fascinating state to watch: If Warren is unable to win her home state, it will could signal the beginning of the end of her campaign, thus completely opening up the progressive lane for Sanders.
See the full Massachusetts primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -300 means that if you bet $300 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +200 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $200.
- Bernie Sanders: -300, 63.0% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +200, 28.0% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1600, 5.0% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.7% implied probability