2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Leads, But Biden Gets Key Endorsement from Klobuchar


Photo credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar

  • Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the presidential race on Monday and has subsequently endorsed former VP Joe Biden.
  • Despite that, both the betting market and politics site FiveThirtyEight have Bernie Sanders as the most likely candidate to win the state on Super Tuesday.
  • Fourteen states total will vote on March 3, and Minnesota has 75 delegates, or about 2.0% of the total number available in the primary.

Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Minnesota to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former VP Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.

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The candidates will compete for 75 total delegates in Minnesota, which makes up about 2.0% of the total number in the primary. Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; Australian book PointsBet currently gives him -1000 odds (bet $1,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 79.0%.

In second place is Biden at +500, with a 14.5% implied probability. The other three candidates — Elizabeth Warren, Michael Bloomberg and Tulsi Gabbard — are all at 3.3% or lower to win the most delegates in Minnesota.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight agrees that Sanders is the most likely winner; they give him a 67% chance to win tomorrow. That’s very interesting considering Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the presidential race on Monday and is endorsed Biden for the nomination.

See the full Minnesota primary odds below (via PointsBet). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -1000 means that if you bet $1,000 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +500 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $500.

  • Bernie Sanders: -1000, 79.0% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +500, 14.5% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +2500, 3.3% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +15000, 0.6% implied probability

More 2020 Democratic Primary & Super Tuesday Odds Coverage

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