2020 North Carolina Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Joe Biden Expected to Win Super Tuesday Race


Photo credit: Scott Olson/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden is a -500 favorite (73.0% implied probability) to win a majority of delegates in North Carolina.
  • Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and North Carolina has 110 delegates, or about 2.9% of the total number in the primary.
  • Bernie Sanders is the only candidate higher than 6% odds; he currently sits with a 17.% implied probability to win the southern swing state.

Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in North Carolina to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.

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The candidates will compete for 110 total delegates in North Carolina, which makes up about 2.9% of the total number in the primary. It’s the third-biggest state on Super Tuesday behind California and Texas.

Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -500 odds (bet $500 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 73.0%.

Second in odds is Sanders at +400, or a 17.5% implied probability. Bloomberg is at 5.2%, and Elizabeth Warren is fourth with 2.5% odds.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight is more bullish on Biden’s chances, giving him an 83% chance to win a majority of delegates. He’s currently forecasted to win average of 47 delegates. This will be an interesting state to watch Tuesday, as North Carolina will likely be an important swing state in November’s general election.

See the full North Carolina primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 North Carolina Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -500 means that if you bet $500 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +400 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $400.

  • Joe Biden: -500, 73.0% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +400, 17.5% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +1600, 5.2% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.8% implied probability

More 2020 Democratic Primary & Super Tuesday Odds Coverage

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