2020 Tennessee Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Will Joe Biden Continue to Dominate in the South on Super Tuesday?
Photo credit: Scott Eisen/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- Former Vice President Joe Biden is a large -900 favorite (76.9% implied probability) to win the most delegates in Tennessee.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Tennessee has 64 delegates, or about 1.7% of the total number in the primary.
- The betting markets have Bernie Sanders (+450, 15.5% implied probability) with the second-best odds to win, and politics site FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish on his chances.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Tennessee to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 64 total delegates in Tennessee, which makes up about 1.7% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -900 odds (bet $900 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 76.9%.
Biden easily won South Carolina on Saturday, and he’s projected to win North Carolina, Virginia and other southern states. He will need to hold onto support in that area of the country to make this a two-man race between him and Sanders exiting Super Tuesday.
Speaking of Sanders, he’s second in the betting market with +450 odds, or a 15.5% implied probability of winning. No other candidate is in double-digit odds: Michael Bloomberg is third with just a 5.0% chance of winning.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is slightly more bearish than betting markets on Biden’s chances, giving him just a 64% chance to win the most delegates. They are more bullish on Sanders, whom they have at 28%.
See the full Tennessee primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Tennessee Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -137 means that if you bet $900 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +450 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $450.
- Joe Biden: -900, 76.9% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +450, 15.5% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1600, 5.0% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability