2020 Texas Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Who’s Expected to Win Super Tuesday’s Most Important Race?
Photo credit: Daniel Carde/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders is a slight favorite (-188 odds, 56.9% implied probability) to win the most delegates in Texas, although politics site FiveThirtyEight has Joe Biden as the favorite.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Texas has 228 delegates, or about 6.0% of the total number in the primary.
- Texas will likely be the closest race on Super Tuesday, and, given the number of delegates, it's definitely the most important state to watch.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Texas to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 228 total delegates in Texas, which makes up about 6.0% of the total number in the primary. It is the third-largest state in the primary behind only California and New York.
Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -188 odds (bet $188 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 56.9%.
This is a tight two-man race it seems: Biden is in a close second at +130 odds, or a 38.0% implied probability. The other three candidates — Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard — are all at 2.5% implied probability or lower.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight actually disagrees with the betting market on this race. They have Biden as a slight 53% favorite to win the most delegates, with Sanders right below at 47%. They give Bloomberg just a 2% chance to win despite his ad spending in the state.
See the full Texas primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Texas Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -188 means that if you bet $188 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +130 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $130.
- Bernie Sanders: -188, 56.9% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +130, 38.0% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +4500, 1.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +15000, 0.6% implied probability