2020 Utah Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Sanders Should Easily Carry the State on Super Tuesday
Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images. Pictured: Bernie Sanders
- Bernie Sanders is a huge favorite (-5000 odds, 85.0% implied probability) to win the most delegates in Utah.
- Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Utah has 29 delegates, or about 0.8% of the total number in the primary.
- No other candidate is approaching even 10% to win; Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are all at 4-5% odds.
Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Utah to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
The candidates will compete for 29 total delegates in Utah, which makes up about 0.8% of the total number in the primary. Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him huge -5000 odds (bet $5,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 85.0%.
This seems to be a run-away race: No other candidate is even at a 10% chance to win. Biden is second at 5.8%, and both Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg are at 4.2%.
FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market, as they’re giving Sanders a 91% chance to win the most delegates. They’re forecasting him to win an average of 13 of the possible 29 delegates in Utah.
See the full Utah primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Utah Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -5000 means that if you bet $5,000 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +1400 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $1,400.
- Bernie Sanders: -5000, 85.0% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1400, 5.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability