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2020 Vermont Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Expected to Cruise to Victory on Super Tuesday

2020 Vermont Democratic Primary Odds & Chances: Bernie Expected to Cruise to Victory on Super Tuesday article feature image

Photo credit: Scott Eisen/Getty Images. Pictured: A supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders holds a campaign sign during a rally in the capital of his home state of Vermont

  • Bernie Sanders is a near lock at an implied probability of 93.0% to win the most delegates in Vermont. He's a senator for Vermont, and he's been an elected official in the state since 1981.
  • Fourteen states total will vote tomorrow, March 3, on Super Tuesday, and Vermont has 16 delegates, or about 0.4% of the total number in the primary.
  • No other candidate is even at 3% to win, highlighting how much of a run-away this contest will likely be.

Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

It’s the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in Vermont to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state’s delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.

Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former VP Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina’s primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.

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The candidates will compete for 16 total delegates in Vermont, which makes up about 0.4% of the total number in the primary. It’s the smallest state on Tuesday in terms of total delegates awarded.

Sanders is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him huge -10000 odds (bet $10,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 93.0%.

This is the most lopsided race of the day, as Sanders is a senator from Vermont and has been an elected official in the state since 1981, when he was first voted in as the mayor of Burlington, Vermont.

No other candidate is even at a 3% chance to win the majority of the delegates. Politics site FiveThirtyEight agrees and is even more sure: They give Sanders a greater than 99% chance to win Vermont.

See the full Vermont primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Vermont Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -10000 means that if you bet $10,000 and Bernie Sanders wins, you’d profit $100. And +3300 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $3,300.

  • Bernie Sanders: -10000, 93.0% implied probability
  • Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
  • Joe Biden: +5000, 1.9% implied probability
  • Michael Bloomberg: +6600, 1.4% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability

More 2020 Democratic Primary & Super Tuesday Odds Coverage

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