Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Odds Keep Getting Worse Amid Sexual Assault Allegations

Sep 18, 2018 12:20 AM EDT
  • Decades-old sexual assault allegations have surfaced against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, putting his confirmation in serious jeopardy.
  • Since July 15, Kavanaugh's chances to be confirmed by September have tanked from 67% to 29% at PredictIt.

Two months ago, it seemed like Brett Kavanaugh was a shoo-in to be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

However, over the past week, decades-old allegations of sexual misconduct from Kavanaugh’s youth have surfaced, putting his confirmation chances in serious jeopardy.

Back on July 15, Kavanaugh’s chances of being confirmed in September were trading at 67% on PredictIt, a political wagering website.

Today? His confirmation chances sit at just 29% on PredictIt.

Meanwhile, at the British betting exchange Smarkets, Kavanaugh’s odds of being the next Supreme Court Justice have tanked from 96.2% to 71.9% over the past week. (Note: All odds as of 6 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 17.)

In order for Kavanaugh to be confirmed to the Supreme Court, his nomination must first be approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee.

A vote has been scheduled for Thursday of this week (Sept. 20), but several key Republican senators, including Susan Collins of Maine and Jeff Flake of Arizona, are voicing concerns.

If any Republican senator votes “No” — assuming all Democratic senators on the committee vote no, as well — Kavanaugh’s confirmation is dead in its tracks.

The clock is ticking for Republicans to push Kavanaugh through.

Right now they hold the majority in Congress, but a “Blue Wave” could be coming in the November midterm elections.

At Bovada, an offshore sportsbook, the Democrats have a 75% chance to win the House (-300 odds). A week ago, they were at 66.7% (-200 odds). Two months ago, the Democrats were 55.6% (-125 odds).

Republicans are a slight favorite to hold the Senate, but they’ve fallen from a 68.3% chance down to 63% (-215 odds to -170) over the past week.

Two months ago, Republicans were 75% (-300 odds).

One of the most consequential Senate races this fall takes place in Texas.

Republican Ted Cruz is a big favorite (71.4% chance, -250 odds) against Democrat challenger Beto O’Rourke (33.9% chance, +195 odds).

If O’Rourke can upset Cruz, Democrats could take back the Senate.

Credit:

Brett Kavanaugh. Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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